Reagan Republicans and unmarried voters
By Brian KirwinPhyllis Schlafly launched a no-holds-barred barrage on Republicans and John McCain wondering “Where did the Reagan votes go in the 2008 election?”
“By a colossal 40-plus point spread, unmarried women voted for Barack Obama by 70 percent to 29 percent. One explanation is economic: The women who cast off husbands look to Big Brother Government to support them. They vote for the party that promises more benefits from the Welfare State…
The United States today has 24 million children growing up in households without their own father, and 17 million of those are in mother-headed households. Why is anybody surprised that the dissolution of marriage, depriving kids of their own fathers and the widespread acceptance of matriarchy produces eager supporters of Obama’s promise to “spread the wealth around”?”
Is it that simple? Is the changing structure of family changing the role of government?
Schlafly talks about several other issues, including trade, bailouts and youth, but none was so pervasive as her bit about Obama and unmarried women. Trade didn’t decide this election, and the bailout didn’t either (although I think what caused the bailout hurt the GOP on the critical competence issue), and young people have no reason to be conservative - they get more than they give from government.
But both unmarried men and unmarried women went for Obama (men 56%, women 70%) and unmarried voters have been about 35% of the electorate since 2000.
So, why have single people supported Democrats so demonstrably? Is it a big government shift? Are unmarried people more likely to support government safety nets, or even movement towards socialism? Absent the traditional support systems of marriage, or even the days when one salary was enough to provide for a family, is government becoming a more reliable support system than marriage and family?
I don’t think all Schlafly’s conclusions are correct. But, I do think this: While every party official is wondering about “outreach” with regard to race, I think we better plan an effort of outreach into “the marriage gap.”
Light Rail bait and switch
By Brian KirwinTwo things really bugged me about today’s story about the recommendation to add $7 million to the cost of Norfolk’s starter line light rail project to pay for upgrading the communications and train control networks, installing flashers and gates at all street crossings, and incorporating a public address system, variable-message boards and emergency call centers on station platforms.
First Problem - the safety recommendations were part of the original plan, but were taken out to get federal funding, according to HRT chief Mike Townes.
This is why government shouldn’t build things. We had to make light rail less safe in order to get the federal government to write a check? And what will the response be if we put everything back in after getting the federal funding? Lowballing costs, getting funding, and putting the costs back in - it may be “government as usual” but it’s why it’s almost impossible to gain citizen trust and support for projects like these.
Problem two - they think we’re idiots.
“Part of what’s driving the recommendations is Virginia Beach’s new interest in possibly extending the line into the resort city, said Matthew Tucker, director of the state rail department. (Virginian-Pilot)
Bull! New interest? It’s been called a “starter line” since it’s inception. What idiot thought that a starter line would not extend? It wasn’t called a “stopper line” - starters start. To suddenly proclaim that someone might someday expand a line that was specifically designed to expand as if it’s a surprise means either Mr. Tucker just found out about the Norfolk starter line this year or he’s obfuscating the obvious.
To me, it looks like they lowballed the budget, got their money, and now want to get more money to pay the real costs which are substantially higher.
Ever wonder why referendums fail?
RNC lawsuit against McCain-Feingold
By Brian KirwinDidn’t take long to shed McCain after Election Day. The Republican National Committee has filed lawsuits going after the soft money ban in the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law “to protect freedoms of speech and freedom of association” said RNC Chairman Mike Duncan on a conference call.
The RNC wants to raise money for 2009 races in Virginia and New Jersey, and for the state parties, and the federal law prohibits that. “When Bobby Jindal was running for Governor in Louisiana, I could not raise money for him” said Duncan. “I was barred from raising money for the state party that would be used for him. I feel that’s an infringement of my constitutional rights, both of association and free speech.”
Not the first time this was challenged, but in 2003, the 5-4 decision to keep the restrictions had Sandra Day O’Connor joining with the majority. Bush appointee Samuel Alito replaced her, so free-speech advocates are hopeful for a different result, given Alito’s siding against the law in two other cases.
I love Justice Scalia’s dissent in the McConnell case in 2003:
Who could have imagined that the same Court which, within the past four years, has sternly disapproved of restrictions upon such inconsequential forms of expression as virtual child pornography, tobacco advertising, dissemination of illegally intercepted communications, and sexually explicit cable programming would smile with favor upon a law that cuts to the heart of what the First Amendment is meant to protect: the right to criticize the government.
Kudos to the RNC. Laws that ban political parties from helping their candidates are insane. We have a former Chairman of the Democratic National Committee “exploring a run” for Governor here in Virginia. Is the Supreme Court going to decree that the Republican National Committee must sit idly by with its hands tied?
RPV Advance to New Media - We’ll teach you how to blog!
By Brian KirwinFor the cool price of $109, plus hotel fees ranging around $150 a night, bloggers from across Virginia can travel on their own nickel to Hot Springs and learn how to blog!
“New Media: Blogging, E Campaigns, Websites” is the name of a workshop scheduled at this year’s RPV advance. So far, I don’t know of any Virginia bloggers asked to be on the panel. Maybe they’ll tout their huge new media successes like this or this (those are the blogs that double their hits by refreshing the screen).
Some workshops may be canceled to make room for a huge Q & A session on the future of the GOP. (wonder what they’ll do with the workshop called “Growing your Unit”?).
But I’m curious who they’ve planned on teaching us about New Media, and what state they are hoping will tell us how it’s done. Virginians like JR, John Henke, Shaun Kenney, Jim Riley, Lynn Mitchell or Chris Green - and a host of others - don’t seem to have made the cut.
I hope they all can attend the advance to learn how to do this the RPV way.
The smart way to do a workshop about new media would be to comp Virginia Republican bloggers to attend and make it very easy for them to post all about the Advance, leading up to and during the event. Lord knows the mainstream media won’t do it, except to attack us.
We all have so much to learn, I guess.
Obama wants to know if you own a gun
By Brian KirwinWant an appointment in the Obama administration? They want to know 63 things about you: If you’ve committed a crime, dodged taxes, been a sexual harasser,…
…and whether you own a gun.
Anyone else think it’s odd that he’d equate gun ownership with sexual harassment?
Democrats admit to “helping” people vote
By Brian KirwinOn Election Day, no Political Party or candidate folks can be anywhere near a voter when they vote. They have to stay 40 feet from the door. But for absentee voters, Party people can “help” all they want.
The Democrats also tried to help elderly voters in those neighborhoods to submit absentee ballots, and that seems to have given the party an edge(Virginian-Pilot)
Why are there two levels of legality? If “helping” is allowed for some, it should be allowed for all, shouldn’t it? I fail to see the difference.
May vs. November
By Brian KirwinMeyera Oberndorf - LOST. Reba McClanan - LOST. Neither has ever lost a re-election battle since they first won when Jimmy Carter was President. This year, Virginia Beach local elections were moved from May to November, and neither survived it.
And lots of folks noticed, and are floating the idea of moving them back to the safe comforts of May before, well, before they have to run in November.
November 2008 saw nearly 200,000 voters to the polls, but that was with a Presidential, Senatorial and Congressional race. 2006, without a Prez, saw 125,000 and 2002, with John Warner basically unopposed, it was 90,000.
Still it’s way more than the 50-60,000 who routinely vote in May.
So, here come the myths of why we should like small turnout May elections over what happened in 2008.
1) the Voters are Uneducated argument - This is the notion that people who vote in low turnout elections know more than those who turnout in large ones. Well, heck, if that’s logical, why have elections at all? Let’s elect by caucus. Let’s have people sign up for a convention and choose City Council that way. If low turnout voters are smarter than high turnout voters, imagine how much smarter convention attendees would be.
Anyone who gives this argument needs to be asked “Exactly which voters this November are you calling uneducated?” If they make the assertion, they need to back it up with facts. Or, at least, offer their position on the poll tax.
2) the May keeps local elections non-partisan argument - Except for the fact that the same City Council members love bragging about their endorsements from this Republican or that Democrat. Chesapeake’s political parties endorse in their May elections.
3) the May campaigns are less expensive argument - Unfortunately, no one told the campaigns about this. May has seen routine 6-figure campaigns and several over $200,000 in Virginia Beach. Outside of Will Sessoms’ record-setting run, no one in November broke the $200,000 barrier. The fundraising playing field was more level this year than May has been lately.
There were fewer newspaper ads, fewer tv spots and radio ads were mostly absent until the final week. City Council races this year were less expensive than recent Mays.
4) the “Incumbents like May” argument - Except for May losers Richard Maddox, Jim Reeve, Barbara Henley, Margaret Eure, Don Weeks, Louisa Strayhorn.
5) the “May is more grassroots” argument - May elections last 60 days and the first 30 is spent scheduling civic league forums and the last 30 is spent having them. Weeks go by with nothing on the schedule. November elections are almost 5 months after the filing deadline. There were more candidate forums this year than I ever remember for City Council, sometimes 3 or 4 the same week.
6) the “Confusing Ballot” argument - With little dropoff between the Presidential and Mayoral contests, it seemed to me that voters were smart enough to vote in both federal and local races combined. If anything was confusing, it’s the way a seat named “Kempsville” can be voted on by people who live at the oceanfront, and that confusion happens every May. That’s not November’s fault. That’s the fault of an at-large/district system that looks like a ward system but isn’t.
Let’s remember May elections were started to control elections with special interests and depressed turnouts. When two titans tumble, old protectionist habits that died hard might be resuscitated.
That only happens if no one questions their reasons.
Obama’s first priorities: Abortion, oil drilling bans and stem cell research
By Brian KirwinWhat? You thought Obama was going to cut taxes for 95% of America and end the Iraq War and turn the economy around? Oh silly you!
The Associated Press reports that the first things Obama plans to accomplish include a ban on oil drilling, lifting abortion restrictions, and changing the policy on stem cells.
Ya know, if Democrats weren’t so predictable, this wouldn’t be so fun! Bipartisan huh? Not by a longshot. Obama has Clinton’s staff and he’s quickly on his way to Clinton’s 1993.
Obama Claus
By Brian KirwinLet’s all gather around the “Holiday” tree, sing “Oh Rahm, Oh Rahm Emmanuel” and see what Obama Claus is gonna give us for Chri- er, Holiday.
I’m making a list and checking it twice of some….yes, only some, of the promises Obama made during his CHANGE campaign before his webmaster CHANGES his website. Let’s all see what promises we should expect the exiting Illinois Senator to keep.
$25 billion State Growth Fund to prevent state and local cuts in health, education, housing, and heating assistance or counterproductive increases in property taxes, tolls or fees. (Isn’t that sweet? Federal spending is called a Growth fund)
$25 billion in a Jobs and Growth Fund to prevent cutbacks in road and bridge maintenance and fund school repair. (let’s see…got that extra 25 billion in a pocket somewhere…)
Give American families an immediate $1,000 emergency energy rebate to help families pay rising bills (My check coming January 21st? Immediate is immediate)
Provide 150 million workers the tax relief they need. Obama and Biden will create a new “Making Work Pay” tax credit of up to $500 per person, or $1,000 per working family. (Welfare makes work pay. Isn’t that special?)
Amend the North American Free Trade Agreement (great on the details, B.O.)
Barack Obama and Joe Biden will raise the minimum wage, index it to inflation and increase the Earned Income Tax Credit (if you raise the minimum wage high enough, there won’t be an Earned Income Tax Credit)
Obama and Biden will create a 10 percent universal mortgage credit. (In case you’re looking for land on Mars)
Cap Outlandish Interest Rates on Payday Loans and Improve Disclosure: Obama and Biden will extend a 36 percent interest cap to all Americans (If only they’d cap taxes at the same level)
Obama and Biden will create an exemption in bankruptcy law for individuals who can prove they filed for bankruptcy because of medical expenses. (Yay! No one ever has to pay medical bills! The Obama affordable health care plan - don’t pay the bill!)
Obama and Biden will make college affordable for all Americans by creating a new American Opportunity Tax Credit. This universal and fully refundable credit will ensure that the first $4,000 of a college education is completely free. (Free to everyone except the taxpayers who paid the $4,000 dollars, and the Colleges that will just raise tuitions $4,000 dollars because of it)
Obama and Biden support a system that allows undocumented immigrants who are in good standing to pay a fine, learn English, and go to the back of the line for the opportunity to become citizens. (And where exactly is this line?)
Obama and Biden will create a National Infrastructure Reinvestment Bank to expand and enhance, not supplant, existing federal transportation investments. (Road bank? ya gotta be kidding me)
Requiring large employers that do not offer coverage or make a meaningful contribution to the cost of quality health coverage for their employees to contribute a percentage of payroll toward the costs of their employees health care. (a federal fine for companies that don’t pay for health care….I believe that’s exactly what the founders said - “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all employers pay for health care or else the federal government will fine them”
Establish a National Health Insurance Exchange (Can’t wait to see how well that goes!)
Yes, indeed. Looks to be a great year in 2008!
Prediction - Obama voters will hurt Nye
By Brian KirwinI know Glenn Nye is hoping for some straight-ticket coattails, especially as he’s been cozying up to Mark Warner in his ads, but I think it’s Obama that may just put Glenn Nye’s campaign on ice.
I have an odd feeling that a whole lot of the much-vaunted “new voters” coming to vote for Obama may just stop there and forget the rest of the ballot. Heck, the federal “no reason needed” absentee ballot requires that you skip the rest of the ballot. That may hurt Meyera and wound Warner, but it will absolutely slay Nye.
Hey Barack, your wife’s doing things behind your back
By Brian KirwinI got a robocall today from Michelle Obama (shame to see the Democrats waste their money, ain’t it?). Good thing I recorded the call, so I can laugh at how stupid our campaign finance laws are.
Michelle Obama’s message to vote for her husband was “not authorized by any candidate or campaign committee.” Am I supposed to believe that Michelle Obama is recording ads for her husband and not coordinating at all with her husband or his campaign? What’d she do? Sneak out to the car and record it by cell phone before he noticed? Barack has no idea she’s campaigning for him? I believe that, don’t you?
Obama - the 6th podium is the charm
By Brian KirwinThis was the story rambling through the city of Virginia Beach yesterday. As reverential gasps at the pending approach of “THE ONE” willowed through the Verizon Wireless Ampitheater, so were buzzing cell phones.
The podium isn’t good enough for O-B-A-M-A!
Neither was the second one. Or the third.
Six podiums later, one met with the ONE’S approval - borrowed from Norfolk.
Poor guy…can’t handle leading the free world unless he likes the podium.
No tax increases unless you make $200K…er, $150K…er…
By Brian KirwinThe downward spiral of Obama’s wealth redistribution continued yesterday as Joe Biden raised Barack Obama’s tax increase by 25% If that’s what they’ll say before Election Day, imagine where they’ll be by January 20th!
“What we’re saying,” he told a Pennsylvania TV interviewer, “is that [our] tax break doesn’t need to go to people making . . . $1.4 million. It should go to [people] making under $150,000 a year.”
Oops. That’s a 25 percent downward redefinition of “middle class.” (NYP)
Remember Bill Clinton’s scam of a middle class tax cut that never happened? Remember Mark Warner vowing to never raise taxes? Remember Obama cutting taxes for everyone except the “super rich?”
Why do we fall for it every time?
Polls - America disagrees with Obama
By Brian KirwinShould government focus on economic growth or redistribution of wealth
economic growth - 84%
Redistribution of wealth - 9%
When government gives money to people who haven’t paid taxes, is that a tax cut or welfare?
It’s a tax cut - 29%
It’s welfare - 63%
(from pollster Dave Winston)
If McCain makes that case, he can win. If he doesn’t, the seeds for Obama’s implosion and a Republican resurgence in the near future are already planted.
Why I love Geraldine Ferraro
By Brian KirwinI attended Regent University’s Clash of the Titans debate, and despite the great debate with Rick Santorum (who is a Virginian), Mike Huckabee, Steve Forbes, and lefties Alan Colmes and Donna Brazile, it was Geraldine Ferraro I got a kick out of, not because of anything she said, but of my youthful memories of this interview (at about 1:24 of the video)


