CNU Poll Shows Republican Candidates Lag Behind Democrats For Governor, LG, AG

I’ve got to admit to missing this poll that came out two days ago but we’re getting caught up now because, with only 27 days before the election, everyone is curious to know if the needle is moving with the gubernatorial race.

Unfortunately, there is no good news here for Republicans, keeping in mind, of course, the unreliability of polls in recent years.

The Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Public Policy’s poll that was released Monday, just as the last one on September 25, has Democrat Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. It also had results for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Governor:
Ed Gillespie (R): 42 percent
Ralph Northam (D): 49 percent
Cliff Hyra (L): 3 percent
Undecided: 6 percent

Lieutenant Governor:
Jill Vogel (R): 40 percent
Justin Fairfax (D): 48 percent

Attorney General:
John Adams (R): 40 percent
Mark Herring (D): 51 percent

Gillespie has tried to connect Northam with sanctuary cities and the resurgence of gangs. Northam has tried to hang Trump like an albatross around Gillespie’s neck.

The margin of error for the likely voter model is +/- 4.3% at the 95% level of confidence.

Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center, noted, “The movement we see in this tracking poll runs in the Democrats’ favor, and all three continue to hold their advantage.”

From the Wason Center:

The Wason Center surveyed 928 registered voters, including 616 who were determined to be likely voters, October 2-6. The margin of error for the likely voter model is +/- 4.3% at the 95% level of confidence. Likely voters are registered voters with a history of voting in recent statewide elections, who also say they definitely or probably will vote in the upcoming election.

In the Wason Center’s benchmark poll in this election, released September 25, Northam led Gillespie, 47% to 41%, and Fairfax and Herring similarly led Vogel and Adams.

Other polls taken around September 25 had Gillespie and Northam neck-in-neck so it will be interested to see what numbers will come out from those when they are released.

Go here to dig deeper into the results.

Election day is November 7.

  • Jim Portugul

    Today in the US House, HR2266. HR 2266 is what is wrong with America. 10’s of billions of dollars printed, borrowed, and thrown everywhere to buy votes. A bill written in legaleze so that only K Street and the crooked, lyin’, thieves, who just happen to be members of congre$$ can understand it.

    Very interesting trend here Lynn, in that it seems when the Republicans in the House vote on this kind of B$ garbage, you don’t put up that days US House schedule. But, when Republicans are going to name park, or perhaps open a post office, or some other stupid s–t, you post the schedule. Here is today’s Republican led diaster in the US House.

    http://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20171009/HRES____.pdf

    Screw the Republican Party and Ed Gillespie and their K St. B$. 100’s of millions or billions for California. Screw California. Use their own money. The money for Puerto Rico will end up going to the Israeli run Wall St..

    I guess Lynn that you are to embarassed by the Republican Party to put up today’s US House schedule?????? Are the days that Lynn does NOT put up the schedule the days Republicans are going to screw America??????

    • John Harvie

      Wow. Now tell us how you really feel.

      • Jim Portugul

        I feel like I need my own media platform. A platform that is not wholly owned by the Democrats, Republicans, or the Israeli’s who run Wall St..

        • John Harvie

          Good answer…

        • old_redneck

          WordPress provides blogs for free, easy to use. Facebook is out there with millions of users. What’s keeping you?

    • JReynolds79

      You do realize the “legaleze” (sic) you decry becomes the law of the land upon passage, right? Would you rather they scribble with crayons and have the courts sort it out?

      • Jim Portugul

        Scribble with crayons and having the courst sort it out is exactly what they do now. Just look at the Trump travel ban and lack of clairity court decisions. You must be in legal profession, or a lobbyist?

  • Jim Portugul

    And just so you will know, HR 2266 started as a bill to do with bankruptcy. It sat around for months. Now, Congress hung many billions in aid to the “Sanctuary State” of California, and Puerto Rico, both which are so corrupt that they cannot even take of themselves.

    Feinstein, McCarthy, Pelosi. one thing they can agree on? Printing money, running up the debt, and pumping that money into California. Every time somebody lights a match in California, we send billions. Basically, aren’t we just paying California to burn itself down?????

    Just look at this. California just passed a law that you can knowing infect someone with HIV, and it’s a misdemeanor. Why? Who?

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/to-your-health/wp/2017/10/09/knowingly-infecting-others-with-hiv-is-no-longer-a-felony-in-california-advocates-say-it-targeted-sex-workers/

  • S Fisher

    It’s odd that the spread is bigger in the Attorney General race…is that normal?

    • Chad Davis

      I noted this above….I agree the AG numbers seem off, and thus probably the numbers in the other two races as well. Per the pollsters, 51 percent of those polled identify as moderate conservative to very conservative. That doesn’t sound like an electorate that should be breaking for Herring by 11 points over Adams. Even if Herring is benefiting from name recognition over Adams, I doubt it would be by anything close to a double digit lead.

  • SJane

    DID anyone in Virginia learn ANYTHING about the 2016 Presidential Election POLLS? THEY were NOT correct.
    AG Herring holding Town hall meetings in Mosque? US Constitution does NOT recognize any specific religion, and meetings for the public should be in places the entire public an attend, and have in-put.
    AG Herring does NOT want to report incest and rape to police, for fear of a religious ideology, and disregards a crime.
    Herring was once representing a family, as their attorney, fired for his unethical behavior, and suggestions, and NOW wants to tell Virginians what they can do, and can NOT do, regardless of what the law designates.
    This is NOT a good AG for Virginians.

    • Chad Davis

      I’m highly suspicious about this poll because of Herring’s numbers. If 51 percent of those polled identify as moderate conservative to very conservative, as the pollsters claim, that would not translate to an 11-point lead in the AG race for a very liberal Democrat, like Herring.

  • Richard Statman

    As I commented in Ms. Mitchell’s previous post
    On the race , my feeling is that the matter is over,
    The Republican candidates seem lost and running
    Against the current social and cultural tide in the
    Country and state , that matters like historical monuments
    And sanctuary cities , appear to have left them in freeze frame.
    Candidates that have no apparent passion beyond
    Policy plans on a daily basis , affirmation that one candidate
    Is a woman , and knows women , or that Mark Herring is a
    Questionable character and poor public servant.
    Don’t think any of that has legs in the current political
    Social or cultural climate.
    What the Republican candidates lack IMO is any passion
    About anything to give their base a reaso; to turn out,
    To interest independent minded people who have doubts
    And reservations about their Democratic opponents
    A reason to turn out and vote.
    That polling is often wrong is fine, but locally here in
    Charlottesville the Republican ticket seems to be
    Receding in the rear view mirror .
    Gillespie seems to have been campaigning forever,
    Ms. Vogel seems not to have appeared in the local
    Radio or Television that I know of , and Mr.Adams
    As knowledgeable and decent as he may be , seems
    Not to have registered on voters radar .
    It is really curious that with such a weak Democratic
    Ticket the end game is in sight for the Dems.
    Mores the pity.

  • mezurak

    Response to today’s poll?

    ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    Sleepy candidates, sleepy election. At least Corey would have had the whole state awake to see what he would say next. Now the hacks want him to endorse Ed? Really? Are you kidding?

    • MD Russ

      Just out of curiosity, if Ed can’t criticize the Republican President, why can Corey refuse to endorse the GOP nominee for Governor? I mean, besides the fact that Corey Stewart is a scum-sucking, back-stabbing opportunist?

      • Jim Portugul

        “Corey Stewart is a scum-sucking, back-stabbing opportunist”

        So, if true, just how does that separate Stewart from any other politician?

        • MD Russ

          The power of squared.

          • mezurak

            Just out of curiosity, why do you wish to remain a Republican?

            I’ve voted for two dems in the past two primaries based upon republicans calling them the weakest dems on the ballot. Bernie didn’t make the election and Ed doesn’t seem capable of beating a burlap sack much less the current guy the Dems have selected. I’m thinking the guy who wasn’t invited to the debates may have a better showing than Ed.

          • MD Russ

            Why do you assume I am a Republican? I’m an Independent.

          • mezurak

            I see. So you are a True Virginian, even on primary day. ;o

          • Jim Portugul
  • MD Russ

    The nuttier Donald Trump’s Tweets get, the lower Ed’s number go. Coincidence? I don’t think so.

  • old_redneck

    May I ask a question?

    Okay, thanks . . . here goes — read this.

    —–
    Indiana Republican state Rep. Jim Lucas (R-Seymour) has drafted a bill
    that would require journalists in the state to be “licensed” with state
    police.

    According to the Indianapolis Star, Lucas, a staunch gun advocate who hopes to repeal gun permit laws in the state, drafted the bill in protest of gun licensure.

    “If you’re okay licensing my second amendment right, what’s wrong with licensing your first amendment right?” Lucas said.

    The bill draft, which Lucas posted on social media, is nearly word-for-word a copy of Indiana’s gun permit laws that the state representative has unsuccessfully tried to repeal for years, the Star report said.

    Lucas reportedly drafted the bill earlier this year, and said he is “a year ahead of President Trump,” referencing the president’s latest threats to “challenge” and try to “revoke” the licenses of national broadcast networks like NBC, whose reporting he does not like.

    — Now, here’s the question: Is there a single Republican in this entire nation who has read the First Amendment??

  • old_redneck

    Looks as though Jill Vogel has decided to mail it in.

    Justin Fairfax demonstrated his intellect, moral courage, and thoughtfulness at this morning’s Mount Vernon-Lee Chamber debate — Jill Vogel a no-show, no reason given for her not responding to the invitation. Fairfax thoroughly answered every question, even those clearly planted to force uncomfortable
    answers.

    Fairfax County Republican Committee snowflakes — who saw their “have-you-stopped-beating-your-wife” questions thrown back in their faces — all left after 30 min.

  • old_redneck

    May I ask another question?

    Thank you for the opportunity.

    Four Americans died at Benghazi and you Republicans went batshit crazy, holding a dozen Congressional hearings and spending millions to “investigate.”

    Last week, four Americans died in a terrorist ambush in Niger and not one Republican gives a shit. Trump says not a word.

    What’s the difference?

    https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/did-trump-just-have-his-benghazi-without-mainstream-media-even-noticing

    • H G

      One difference…
      You’re outraged?
      Once all the info comes out, I’m sure many differences will slap you in the face. One being, Hillary didn’t have the chance to leave them for dead.

    • ameri…canwork

      These were covert combat operations.

      Clinton said during election;
      Who do you want answering the phone at 1 am in the morning.

      Well Ms Secretary,
      Benghazi was “ringing your phone many times”
      Now you let Ambassador and his security burn then blamed a cartoon from California.
      Then you even went on to pay $100,000.00 to a terrorist organization to escort the Embassy Members from Tripoli.
      In both instances US Marines were 20 minutes away.

      • old_redneck

        “US Marines were 20 minutes away?”

        Really?

        Please cite your source. And Fox is not a source.

        The only Marines were the small Marine Security Detachment at the Embassy in Tripoli.

        • ameri…canwork

          Uh duh,
          When you have children deployed over there in ______ you know.

        • ameri…canwork

          How come the Madam Secretary had a piss poor excuse for Benghazi burning?
          A cartoon, WTF?
          No personal accountability by Mad Secretary whatsoever.

  • H G

    Keep putting those establishment candidates out there for the democrats to whip up on.

  • ameri…canwork

    How come Gillespie runs his mouth about MS-13 in Bedford County
    yet he is silent about illegal aliens and other criminals operating as unlicensed subcontractors/illegal employment.
    Why yes these unlicensed subcontractors/illegal aliens do not have VEC Accounts to be compliant with the Va.
    Unemployment Compensation Act.
    Is Gillespie ignorant to Santurary in Virginia through illegal employment?
    Ignorant?
    OR
    Complicit?

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