I’ve got to admit to missing this poll that came out two days ago but we’re getting caught up now because, with only 27 days before the election, everyone is curious to know if the needle is moving with the gubernatorial race.
Unfortunately, there is no good news here for Republicans, keeping in mind, of course, the unreliability of polls in recent years.
The Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Public Policy’s poll that was released Monday, just as the last one on September 25 , has Democrat Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. It also had results for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
– Ed Gillespie (R): 42 percent
– Ralph Northam (D): 49 percent
– Cliff Hyra (L): 3 percent
– Undecided: 6 percent
– Jill Vogel (R): 40 percent
– Justin Fairfax (D): 48 percent
– John Adams (R): 40 percent
– Mark Herring (D): 51 percent
Gillespie has tried to connect Northam with sanctuary cities and the resurgence of gangs. Northam has tried to hang Trump like an albatross around Gillespie’s neck.
The margin of error for the likely voter model is +/- 4.3% at the 95% level of confidence.
Dr. Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center, noted, “The movement we see in this tracking poll runs in the Democrats’ favor, and all three continue to hold their advantage.”
From the Wason Center:
The Wason Center surveyed 928 registered voters, including 616 who were determined to be likely voters, October 2-6. The margin of error for the likely voter model is +/- 4.3% at the 95% level of confidence. Likely voters are registered voters with a history of voting in recent statewide elections, who also say they definitely or probably will vote in the upcoming election.
In the Wason Center’s benchmark poll in this election, released September 25, Northam led Gillespie, 47% to 41%, and Fairfax and Herring similarly led Vogel and Adams.
Other polls taken around September 25 had Gillespie and Northam neck-in-neck so it will be interested to see what numbers will come out from those when they are released.
Go here to dig deeper into the results.
Election day is November 7.