New Poll Shows Northam Leading Gillespie in Virginia

Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center poll released Monday showed Democrat Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia’s gubernatorial race.

  • Ed Gillespie (R): 41 percent
  • Ralph Northam (D): 47 percent
  • Cliff Hyra (L): 4 percent
  • Undecided: 8 percent
  • Margin of error: +/- 3.7 percent

Those sampled had voted in recent statewide elections and said they definitely or probably will vote in the November 7 election.

The Wason Poll noted:

Northam’s lead over Gillespie is built on strong support from women (+18), voters under 45 (+18), voters in Northern Virginia (+11) and Hampton Roads (+20), and ideological moderates (+26). Gillespie leads regionally in Richmond-Central Virginia (+8) and rural South and Southwest Virginia (+5), and among men (+7). Each has the overwhelming support of his party’s base, and they split independents (38% to 38%).

In the lieutenant governor and attorney general races the poll found:

  • Lieutenant Governor: Democrat Justin Fairfax (46 percent) leads Republican Jill Vogel (42 percent)
  • Attorney General: Democrat (incumbent) Mark Herring (47 percent) leads Republican John Adams (42 percent)

Dr. Quinton Kidd, director of the Wason Center, added, “Northam is doing well where he needs to do well. A Democratic plus-11 advantage in Northern Virginia and plus-20 in Hampton Roads are hard for a Republican to overcome in the rest of the state.”

Virginia’s election on November 7 will see governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and all 100 members of the House of Delegates on the ballot.

Dig deeper into the Wason Poll here.

Other recent poll results:

  • Jim Portugul

    Looks to me like Ed could use the populist vote about now. How’s all that establishment cash working out for you Ed?

  • ameri…canwork

    Close poll numbers.
    The issue of Employee Misclassification, which our next Governor will sign into law could be a deciding factor, jobs , jobs , jobs.
    Who has a better plan to end payroll, tax and insurance fraud?
    It would be nice for them to spend some money on illegal jobs advertising.

  • Lawrence Wood

    Wason Poll has had some mixed results in the past from my perspective but one thing that jumps out at me regarding the purported demographics of their poll sample is Northam’s proposed lead over Gillespie among women (+18) and particularly among ideological moderates (+26) which borders on crushing. Hampton Roads and NoVA are in reality baked into any realistic Republican candidate run or should be.

    If these figures prove to be more or less accurate to extrapolate from then the close race scenario (under 2 points) can be shelved and the best (perhaps only hope) is a massive turnout down the line including state Trump supporters with an especial plus if they reside in NoVA and the Roads. Lots of wasted opportunity there from the Gillespie team on leveraging that scenario and I don’t see much happening or changing thirty days out from election in that regard anyway.

    This is only a single poll sample so I assume you could claim outlier or non validated by additional data. The final oddity in my opinion is the Wason Northam (+26) ideological moderates placed along side the even split they project between both candidates among independents (38% to 38%). Something not ringing true there regarding the independent polling measures or how they were poll categorized in the data gathering effort. As I have said many times before he is a good man but a candidate running a decade to late and reams of cash isn’t going to shift that reality.

    • Jim Portugul

      Change? They might want to try doing what they say will if elected for a “change”.

      If Gillespie wins, I have no doubt that he will have the power company on speed dial, and in true McDonnell, Norment, and Howell fashion, raise taxes.

  • mezurak

    That 4 percent free gift to Hyra is looking pretty important right now. Debates and the lack thereof have consequences. And look at Hampton Roads +20. Higher than the spread in NoVa? If true, that’s bad news for more than Ed and the other state candidates. And what’s an ideological moderate? Is that a republican who feels they are really a Dem?

    • Lawrence Wood

      You are correct and if Hyra’s final tally comes in any where near Sarvis’ 6.5% garnered during the last gubernatorial election or worse case, from a Gillespie perspective, greater then that previous percentage being puffed up with disgruntled Trump voters then lights out for Ed – period.

      I never understood Gillespie’s campaign team approach to the Trump voter base, especially putting up with the continuing bad mouthing from many of his state surrogates when he so clearly needed every vote he could peal from them and the notion of treating Cliff Hyra (by both candidates) as a nonexistent entity made even less sense. Ed may be a Richmond favorite but he really is the worst retail politician in Virginia in my opinion. I hope we can agree on the two strikes and your out count on this one.

  • Downstater

    The Republican team had better start running some harder hitting ads really fast because they are going down the drain. I see attack ad after attack ad by both Northam and the AG candidate’s backers, with fewer pro-Ed ads. And the Ed spots I do see are not very attention grabbing. Get it together, ed. Knew we should have Corey on the ticket. He would be running some hard-nosed stuff right now, not just sitting back and getting punched.

    Ed did well in the debates, but only us real political junkies watch those.

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