New Mason-Dixon Poll Shows Northam 44%, Gillespie 43%, for Governor

The third poll in two days for Virginia’s gubernatorial race basically shows what the other two polls did: it’s anybody’s race.

Released on Tuesday, Mason-Dixon Poll’s numbers are almost identical to Monday’s polls:

  • Ed Gillespie (R): 43 percent
  • Ralph Northam (D): 44 percent
  • Cliff Hyra (L): 2 percent
  • Undecided: 11 percent

Regional numbers:

  • Northam has a substantial lead in Northern Virginia (57-30 percent) and also leads in Hampton Roads (45-39 percent).
  • Gillespie has a commanding hold over the rural areas (Central Virginia, Shenandoah 53-36 percent; Lynchburg/Southside 52-35 percent); Roanoke/Southwest 57-32 percent).

The margin of error was +/- 4 percent.

Mason-Dixon adds, “One factor that might give Northam an inside track is that there is a higher percentage of undecided black voters (18%) and those who identify themselves as Democrats (13%) — voters who strongly support him — than there are among undecided whites (9%) and Republicans (11%) — groups who strongly support Gillespie.”

It’s a close race and will all come down to who can turn out their people.