The Democratic Crossover Isn’t Coming

Donald Trump’s fall in the post-convention polls has become old news. Worth discussing, though, is what these polls tell Republicans must be done to turn this election around and address the deficiencies if a comeback attempt is to be mounted.

Nationally, Trump lags Hillary Clinton by 6.0% in RCP’s average of polls. His averages in key battleground states are just as grim. Clinton leads Virginia by 11.2%, Florida by 4.5%, and Ohio by 2.6%. The long-held hope of turning Pennsylvania red is fading as Clinton now leads in the Keystone State by 9.2%.

Trump’s ongoing fundraising woes have left the traditional battleground states starved for cash as his campaign faces an imminent need to ramp up spending in states once thought to be either safely Republican or winnable with modest expenditure. Clinton trails Trump by only three-tenths of a percent in both Arizona and Georgia while leading by 2.0% in North Carolina. Trump’s edge of 5.3% in Missouri leaves little room for comfort.

The detailed crosstabs in an August 17th poll by Quinnipiac University evidence several of the problems faced by the Virginia GOP. The poll’s toplines show Clinton beating Trump 50-38 among “likely voters” in a binary race according to the pollster’s turnout model.

Polling isn’t a perfect science, but it is worth noting that, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings, QU is one of the more accurate pollsters, earning an A- rating for calling 87% of races correctly with an R+0.7% lean.

QU found Virginia’s GOP base unconsolidated, with support for Trump over Clinton at a laggard 79-13 among Republicans, while Clinton leads Trump 92-3 among Democrats. Among independents, Clinton leads Trump 43-37 in a two-way question.

Digging deeper we find another problem: 92% of Democrats already view Trump as “strongly unfavorable” with only 4% undecided. Lest one thinks this a test of partisanship, only 77% of Republicans feel the same way about Clinton.

Let this sink in for a moment.

The Democratic crossover isn’t coming.

Trump will not win Virginia through Democratic crossover, as 92% of Democrats view Trump as “strongly unfavorable”, 92% of Democrats are voting for Hillary Clinton, and 87% of Clinton voters – Democrats, independents, and Republicans alike – said their minds were already made up. Democrats aren’t backing Trump and won’t be changing their minds.

The Reagan coalition is not reassembling. While isolated stories of Democrats for Trump can be found, the trend is clear. The plural of “anecdote” is not “data.”

Looking at this polling data, Republicans face three essential challenges to win Virginia:

 

The Base Must be Consolidated

With only 79% of self-identified Republicans supporting Trump, the GOP needs to shore up support among the base, making the case for why Clinton mustn’t become President. Where skepticism for Trump remains, Republicans must sell other Republicans on the benefits of retaking the White House, including stopping Clinton’s appointment of activist judges, the need for Republican cabinet leadership, and the value in avoiding the risk of a President Clinton advancing her agenda should Democrats later win Congressional majorities.

To win, Republicans must reach out to other Republicans.

 

Turnout is King

In this race, 44% of all Clinton voters plan to cast their ballots primarily in opposition to Trump – including 58% of the independents supporting her. Likewise, 61% of Trump supporters plan to cast their ballots primarily in opposition to Clinton, including 67% of independents whose main motivation lies in voting against her.

Needless to say, this datapoint joins a host of others in hinting at a lower-turnout election where deep voter resentment towards both candidates keeps tens of millions at home on election day.

This race may very well be decided more by turnout operations than persuasion efforts. Polls of “likely voters” are just that – a sampling of those who plan to vote. With both polarizing candidates being very well-defined, opportunities for persuasion remain limited.

Virginia Republicans face two goals in driving turnout.

First, they must make the case for why Clinton must be defeated to fellow Republicans, ensuring GOP turnout remains high on election day.

Second, while this election won’t be won by crossover Democrats, it still could be won if enough unengaged non-voters can be brought to the polls in opposition to Hillary Clinton, the ultimate embodiment of the Washington status quo.

Driving turnout among this bloc won’t be accomplished with Trump’s Twitter account. Engaging the unengaged requires a strong paid communications operation run by a campaign whose funding must improve, but also, well-targeted Republican grassroots operations. Those currently tuned out of politics won’t be brought into the fold without a surge in Republican volunteerism in support of campaign operations.

 

Independents Can’t Break for Clinton

Independent voters are enormously dissatisfied with Hillary Clinton, with only 20% holding strongly favorable opinion of her.

In a four-way question including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, Clinton leads Trump 36-32, with 25% of voters supporting a minor party candidate. If historical trends hold, much of the 32% dissension from major party candidates among independents will consolidate behind either Clinton or Trump, particularly in a year where the electorate is motivated primarily by opposition to a disfavored candidate.

This trend is seen in Virginia independents. When the presented choice is binary (Clinton versus Trump), Clinton edges Trump 43-37. Expanding the question to four candidates (36-32), Clinton loses 7 points, whereas Trump loses 5. While the presence of minor party candidates is a net detriment (within MoE) to Clinton, it offers her greater opportunities for a rebound if support consolidates.

Polling data shows Stein primarily drawing from Clinton and Johnson primarily drawing from Trump. Very few Stein voters will ever support Trump, but Virginia Republicans face an opportunity to recapture independents being lost to Johnson.

Whether persuading independents to oppose Clinton, or guiding their choice as they return to a major party nominee, the need for this third indispensable element is clear.

Virginia Republicans cannot allow independents to break for Clinton. Rather, they must become a net benefit to Trump.

 

Virginia Republican Priorities

Mounting a comeback would require consolidating the base, driving turnout, and keeping independents from breaking for Clinton – three tough challenges all needing volunteer support and financial resources.

The volunteer situation faces challenges. The fractures in the party have kept many stalwarts home. New supporters didn’t materialize in the expected wave, while grassroots efforts remain hamstrung by limitations in staff and resources.

Volunteers are being kept “iced” while victory efforts struggle without a plan, without enough things for supporters to do, and without the materials needed to make it happen.

“ATTENTION TRUMP SUPPORTERS: The Craig County Republican Committee has been made aware that Trump campaign materials are not likely to arrive any time soon,” wrote one unit committee in early August, pleading for donations to buy the needed collateral. “If you are interested in helping, we can accept donations online or by check.”

Elsewhere in the Virginia, emails are circulating organizing group buys of materials outside official channels.

Troubling, though, is the undersupply of official efforts. At a recent unit committee meeting, samples of Trump literature were distributed as the chairman pleaded for members to remain patient, reminding those present there wasn’t enough for everyone to take home.

If a unit committee can’t give one door hanger to every Republican at a monthly meeting, how can Victory operations expect to contact enough Republicans, non-voters, and independents as the polls demonstrate is necessary?

Not every committee has the resources or can leverage adequate economies of scale to buy its own materials. Even if they could, these inefficiently small print runs and tightened schedules mean less thought is being put into campaign messaging not necessarily well-tested, all at a cost above what’s necessary.

The resource trickle doesn’t seem to be improving. National parties and Super PACs on both sides are scaling back their Virginia operations or withdrawing entirely as top line polling shows an increasingly one-sided race. Yes, the climb is uphill, but for Republicans, there aren’t enough resources to go around.

Back in March, Bearing Drift covered the stunning results of a poll from Utah showing Clinton ahead by two. While those results weren’t entirely believable, they did hint at an important problem: Trump’s lag in consolidating the Republican base in “safe” states foretold a cash drain from Virginia.

Since then, GOP polling weakness in states such as Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina continues to drive more resource demands than the Trump campaign and the RNC can meet.

In Virginia, where Clinton now holds a double-digit lead, those resources now appear to be going elsewhere. If a Republican comeback effort is to be mounted, it must begin in Virginia, by Virginians, with Virginian resources.

The polling shows how that must be done.