Much has been made of what will happen to the Romney candidacy if he loses his “home state” of Michigan (remember that New Hampshire was also called his home state). News outlets have been replete with breathless talk of a potentially or even decisively failed candidacy and a brokered convention.
Well, not only has Romney made up a good deal of ground in the polls in the wake of over four million dollars in TV ads in that state, but no one seems to be asking the reverse question:
What if Romney wins both Michigan and Arizona (where polls have shown him well ahead for some time)?
In that case, the perception changes completely for Romney, from a weak frontrunner on the ropes after his lousy triple-loss Tuesday almost three weeks ago – a perception he has not been able to reverse because of a lack of contests in that time – to a strong frontrunner with tens of millions in cash advantage, a far superior organization, and likely to score victories in at least a half dozen states, including Virginia, on Super Tuesday the following week.
In other words, he’ll be exactly where he was after Florida.
And while much has been made in some quarters of Santorum’s lead in national polls, those polls simply reflect an historically volatile primary race with wild lead changes reminiscent of an NBA game with one team and then the other on a hot roll with three pointers. These national polls are so volatile that they are subject to wild swings based on the results of each and every primary or caucus day. And national numbers mean little when this nomination race is being staged state by state.
The betting here is that Romney does pick up wins in both Arizona and Michigan and re-establishes if not his inevitable nomination, at least a restored status as unquestioned frontrunner heading into what could be a decisive Super Tuesday.
