Bolling: Will Youngkin Win or Lose on Tuesday?

This is a good column from Jeff Schapiro of the Richmond Times Dispatch on the importance of next Tuesday’s General Assembly elections to Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin: Schapiro: Assembly election, no doubt, is referendum on governor.

Youngkin has staked much on the outcome of this fall’s elections, spending millions to support targeted Republican candidates, appearing in side-by-side TV ads with some candidates, and cutting his own solo ads to encourage Virginians to vote Republican.

To be successful, Republicans must hold the Virginia House of Delegates and win control of the State Senate, a tall task given the perceived political leanings of the key districts that will determine the outcome.

A victory will strengthen Youngkin’s ability to get his legislative agenda enacted during his final two years in office, and fuel his obvious national political ambitions.

A defeat will do just the opposite.

Other than the obvious importance of his significant financial support, does Youngkin really have the ability to influence voters’ decisions in these key districts? I’m not so sure. His own approval rating is hovering around 50 percent which means that his influence could be limited to encouraging turnout in the Republican base, which is important, but not decisive.

The results will depend on the outcome of 4-5 key Senate races, and maybe 5-6 key House races, many of which could go either way depending on voter interest and turnout.

Stay tuned. Tuesday will tell us a lot, not only about who will govern Virginia for the next two years, but about how it will be governed.