Did COVID Really Cost Trump the Election?
It’s been three and a half years since COVID reached our shores (we think), and about three and a third years since it caused the transformations and arguments that are still coursing through America today. Unfortunately, even in that short period of time, certain myths about the pandemic have arisen. In the process, they have distorted our view of the recent past.
To hear most people describe it, the pandemic was 2020 and 2020 was the pandemic. Moreover, it was because of the pandemic that Biden defeated Trump that year. Yet I would argue that this is actually the biggest political myth about COVID, and it’s allowed Trump to attempt a political comeback next year.
The Conventional Wisdom
In the weeks and months after Election Day 2020, the closeness of the race (and it was quite close where the electoral college was concerned) led many pundits to conclude that COVID itself cost Trump the election. The damage caused by the disease and Trump’s bizarre displays of ignorance and incompetence surrounding it was front and center back then. It seemed logical that it was the main black swan event that derailed Trump’s re-election.
With hindsight, I’m not so sure. Contrary to current widespread belief, the recession of 2020 began in February, before the lockdowns, before the visible spread, etc. Don’t take my word for it; ask the folks whose job it is to measure these things, the National Bureau of Economic Research. While COVID didn’t start the 2020 recession, the legislation to counter the economic effects almost certainly ended it in April, far earlier than when a normal recession would have ended (August at the earliest). Without the disease, there is no relief package.
What a Normal Recession Would Have Looked Like
In a “normal” recession with a divided Congress, it’s far more likely the recession is allowed to run its course. Meanwhile, Trump’s desperate optimism on COVID, which made him look foolish to tens of millions of Americans, would have simply been transferred to the recession itself. I would argue that such a reaction would have been more politically damaging for Trump because there was no culture war angle to the recession (as there was with COVID denialism).
Meanwhile, greater attention would have been paid to Trump’s actual economic policies, in particular the damage done by his trade wars. This is among the most important, but least recognized, economic consequences of COVID: it shut down the roiling discussion on trade, to the detriment of freer trade supporters. Trump could hide the mistake of this trade wars with COVID, while Biden’s drift to a freer-trade position was halted by the disease. He has drifted back to his 1980s protectionism, for which we have all suffered.
No Culture War Rescue
Finally, we are still dealing with the culture-war ramifications of the pandemic. For all of Trump’s incompetence, he was able to distract his own voters on the matter by elevating COVID to the status of Ultra-Culture War. COVID denialism and resistance to lockdowns and masks became more important in the GOP than actually fighting the disease, let alone Trump’s lack of progress in doing so.
Without COVID, it’s far less likely Republicans would have been able to drive evangelical turnout as high as they did. For example, the Trump campaign used the contrast between Easter in lockdown and summer BLM protests as the ultimate culture war grievance. Without the virus, that grievance vanishes.
Rather than change America’s views on politics, I would argue that COVID merely sharpened them. Those of us who considered Trump unfit for office had our priors confirmed, while those who saw a one-man army of their grievances up against the entire federal bureaucracy saw their fantasy come to life. Either way, I don’t think COVID created the anti-Trump majority; it was just the final reason for it to show up at the polls.
