Saxman: Youngkin’s Not Down, Trump’s Not Inevitable
Stop what you are doing.
Putri Ariani is a blind, 17 year old Muslim girl from Indonesia.
She came to America to follow her dream of going to Juilliard.
Tuesday night, she was on America’s Got Talent. First time in America.
Yes, America is very much still the land of dreams and opportunity.
A blind Muslim girl from Indonesia knows that America is a beacon of hope.
Why? How?
Because that’s what she was taught in the most populous Muslim-majority country 13,000 miles away. The other side of the planet.
Our American story, while complicated, is worth telling.
And it’s a good one. Perfect by no means, but made “more perfect” by a dream followed and broadcast to millions.
Yes, the idea of America is exceptional.
To Putri? You go, girl. You go to Juilliard.
From Indonesia.
Annnd we’re back…
Roanoke College came out with their latest poll. The headlines that followed say that Governor Glenn Youngkin is down 6 points in approval from March.
Apparently, Youngkin has dropped from 57 to 51.
The Republican Standard thinks Youngkin’s drop is a result of a dispute with the Virginia Hunting Dog Association. HIGHLY unlikely….
Comparing the last three Roanoke College polls several things stand out.
- Education. A massive political realignment has occurred in American politics over the last decade plus. Those with college degrees and higher have broken towards Democrats sharply while those without college degrees have broken to the Republicans. The US Census has 40.3% of Virginians holding a bachelor’s degree or higher. In December and March, Roanoke College polled it at 43% and 42% respectively. May’s universe was … 49%.
- Political Ideology – In December, Roanoke had Virginia polling 23% Liberal, 39% Moderate, and 29% Conservative. 23-39-29. March 23-33-21 and May 27-35-28.
- Partisan affiliation – December Democrats 32, Republicans 24, and Independents 30. D-R-I was 32-24-30. March 30-25-24. May 34-21-28. That’s D+6 to D+5 to D+13.
- Geography – In December and March, Roanoke polled with 52% from Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads combined. In May? 57%
Bottom line – Governor Glenn Youngkin is not down 6 points from March. He’s probably at the same level of statewide approval.
There’s a number and possibly a trend that stood out – Independents might not be leaning anymore and it bears watching.
When asked of Independents, “Do you lean more toward the Democratic Party or toward the Republican Party?”
D – R – I as follows:
46-39-16 in December
29-31-33 in March
33-26-39 in May
That needs to explored. #JoeManchin
Aaaand finally…
If Donald Trump is so inevitable to be the GOP nominee, why are more and more Republicans getting in the race?
Why? Because it’s becoming more clear that the Mar-A-Lago document investigation is producing political blood in the water and all the sharks smell it.
Just this week, Trump’s VP Mike Pence jumped in along with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and current North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum. Read Burgum’s intro (and very good) op-ed in today’s WSJ.
VIVA.
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