Saxman: A Look at 3 Western Virginia HoD Districts with More Than One Incumbent
|Three western Virginia House of Delegates districts are featuring contests that could have more than one incumbent legislator vying for the nomination.
These three nominations are essentially the election as all of these districts will, in all likelihood, be won by the Republican nominee.
District 36 – 64% Youngkin in 2021, 59% Trump in 2016
Delegates John Avoli and Ronnie Campbell
Avoli’s current House District 20 makes up almost 75% of the new 36th and that gives him a substantial structural advantage for the Republican nomination.
Financially, neither Avoli nor Campbell posted numbers in their last reports that indicate they are running. In fact, Avoli had the only donation reported.
Avoli has 58k Cash on Hand (COH) to Campbell’s 45k.
My Spidey Sense is that Avoli and Campbell have worked out their differences and that the new 36th will not have a rough and tumble nomination fight.
|District 44 – 79% Youngkin, 74% Trump
Delegates Israel O’Quinn and Will Wampler
The new 44th is basically 50% the old 4th (Wampler) and 50% the old 5th (O’Quinn).
O’Quinn has a substantial lead in finances and more seniority/name ID than Wampler.
O’Quinn’s COH 245k to Wampler’s 88k; however, Wampler outraised O’Quinn in the first report 37k to 13k indicating that he might not be going quietly into that good night. In fact, Wampler had 51 donors over $100 and 25 under while O’Quinn posted 17 over $100 and 0 under.
If they both run one would have to give a slight edge to O’Quinn winning this nomination due to finances and name ID.
Current Slight Advantage – O’Quinn, but if someone offers you the money line on an uncontested nomination here, hit that bet hard.
|And then there’s the 47th…
District 47 – 79% Youngkin in 2021, 72% Trump in 2016
Delegates Marie March and Wren Williams.
Since the second minute after the new district lines were announced, this nomination was deemed to be a whopper. Both newly elected in 2021, March and Williams have staked out political positions that align well with this very Republican region.
One regional Republican leader referred to this nomination fight as “a real sh*t show.”
So, let’s look at the numbers…
March represents current District 7 and Williams represents the 9th. If you note the visual below, the new 47th is made up of 35% from the 9th and just 18% of the old 7th.
Advantage – Williams; however, that other 35% from the old 6th is likely to be the battleground. Delegate Jeff Campbell currently represents the 6th and his endorsement could tip the nomination.
Financially, Williams reported 53k COH to March’s 6k, but March raised more in the period – but nothing significant 14k to 9k. Williams did have a lot more donors in the report with 72 over $100 and 56 under, whereas March had 14 over $100 and just 4 under.
Everyone familiar with this area believes that this will be a very contentious contest, but the numbers suggest it might not be that close. Williams comes from a much more populous part of the district and has more financial resources on hand.
Still, the Republican base responds to those who appear to be the fiercer fighter. (And so does the Democratic base for that matter)
To that end, March could peel off some votes in the old 6th. Her website says she is a “no compromise conservative” who doesn’t play politics, “but is committed to getting things done…”
Well, there’s a first time for everything.
Anywho…the 47th right now is a Lean Williams based solely on the numbers publicly available.
|The Annual Leadership Luncheon is scheduled for September 22 at the Ritz Carlton in Tyson’s Corner, please reply to this email for tickets or table sponsorships.
THANK YOU to event sponsors National Counseling Group, Dominion Energy, Volkswagen Group of America, Americans for Prosperity and Washington Gas as well as table sponsors Hunton Andrews Kurth, Family Insights, Fairfax Self Storage, Fair Vote, Virginia Beer Wholesalers Association, Loudoun Chamber of Commerce, Dulles Chamber of Commerce, Reston Chamber of Commerce, and Prince William Chamber of Commerce.
Legislators and candidates attending so far: Senator Jennifer Boysko, Delegate Paul Krizek, Delegate Vivian Watts, and State Senate candidate/former Delegate Hala Ayala.
Two of Virginia’s legislative leaders – Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert (R – Shenandoah) and Senate Majority Caucus Vice Chairman Scott Surovell (D – Fairfax) will be speaking.
We expect more General Assembly incumbents and candidates to attend.
Virginia FREE Members have reserved seating.
Tickets will not be publicly available.
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Save the date! December 15th – Virginia FREE Annual Luncheon at the historic Jefferson Hotel.