Saxman: Trust and Hope

Lots to talk about today at 3pm EST.

Zoom link for Virginia FREE Fridays

Banner headline today from Axios:

Businesses under more pressure to save society

Small wonder given the complete inability for our elected officials to work together.

Again for readers here – that’s on us, not them. They represent us.

That’s another reason why the free enterprise system is – also again – such powerful agent of change.

Markets respond to customer behavior. People think differently, then behave differently and the market quickly facilitates/adapts to that behavior with remarkable speed.

In our family’s business I would remind our co-workers, “The customer isn’t always right, but they are always the customer.”

Younger people are demanding action from their employers. They are driving a lot of the change we will see in the short, mid, and long term since the first customer for many employers is their employee.

That relationship – the employer/employee relationship looks like it is the most trusted external relationship in the world right now.

The Edelman Trust Barometer is an annual global survey. Here’s a graph from Axios based on that survey:

See how proximity matters?

People trust their employers more because they interact with them on a regular basis. That relationship governs a lot of our behaviors.

Politically, however, our behaviors – at least in America – are divided up into what is called The Hidden Tribes of America. A group called More in Common did a year long survey several years ago and broke down “America’s Polarized Landscape”

Here’s a powerful graph from that report:

 

Please read and share Jonathan Haidt’s recent column in The Atlantic on social media entitled:

WHY THE PAST 10 YEARS OF AMERICAN LIFE HAVE BEEN UNIQUELY STUPID

Subtitled – It’s not just a phase

Political and cultural divisions within any country are normal. Social media, however, has driven deep wedges into our culture that act more like an axe maul. Add in the fact that America has one of the most diverse populations in the world and suddenly you can imagine how complex and disintegrated our culture can quickly become.

But let’s jump to some recent polling averages and get sense of where we stand heading into the Memorial Day weekend.

President Biden’s polling is in the worse shape of his presidency and is deeply underwater with polling hitting the mid 30s in some cases.

See the LVs below? Slightly better according to Rasmussen but not great for a party that relies on registering voters to drive turnout. Young voters tend to move around a lot and have to register all over again. Lack of enthusiasm messes with modeling.

Election Day 2021? Biden was….minus 8. Today? Six and half points worse.

So when you look at VPAP district profiles. Go to Congressional Districts 2 – 7 – 10 and knock off another 6.5 from Democratic performance in 2021.

Luria CD 2 – Youngkin +11.1

Spanberger CD 7 – Youngkin +4.9

Wexton CD 10 – McAuliffe + 1.6

Here is the max out chart from the last dozen plus years of Congressional approval. One can see why every election seems like a “change election” since 2008.

From the Axios article on Edelman Trust Barometer:

People expect corporations and CEOs to continue addressing the most pressing social and political issues even after the pandemic is over, according to new data.

Why it matters: While this provides opportunities for some companies to grow, it also puts more pressure on CEOs and business leaders to address more than just shareholder returns.

Details: Trust in the government is at an all-time low globally, according to the latest mid-year Edelman Trust Barometer study.

• Businesses are now the most trusted institution in the world, a role they assumed mid-way through the pandemic, once people realized governments were ill-equipped to develop and rollout vaccines alone.
• Globally, the majority (60%) of people say their country will not be able to overcome its challenges without business’ involvement. Across every issue measured, people say businesses have outperformed government.

Be smart: Most people (77%) said their employer has become their most trusted institution, which has put much more pressure on CEOs to prioritize societal and political issues in addition to business outcomes.

• Roughly 80% of employees, on average, expect their company to act on issues such as vaccine hesitancy, climate change, automation, misinformation, and racism.
• Before the pandemic, customers were considered the most important business stakeholders. Now, it’s employees.

We will be examining the increasing need for business leader to constructively and effectively engage the political world.

Thus this newsletter’s name – The Intersection

And from The Dispatch this morning:

Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories

• Texas Department of Public Safety officials substantially revised their account of Tuesday’s shooting at Robb Elementary School, telling reporters Thursday their initial assessment of the shooter engaging fire with a district security officer on his way into the school was incorrect, and that he actually walked in “unobstructed.” The officials’ updated timeline details the gunman standing outside the school for 12 minutes and walking inside at 11:40 a.m., but not being killed by police until more than an hour later.
• Senators headed home for a 10-day recess on Thursday, but signaled early optimism that a deal could be reached on some narrow pieces of gun-safety legislation when they return. Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy said he’d be willing to accept a more incrementalist approach than he has previously, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he encouraged GOP Sen. John Cornyn of Texas to spearhead bipartisan negotiations on legislation “directly related to the problem.” A bipartisan group of nine senators met in the Capitol on Thursday, and Murphy said he is now “perfectly willing to let the good prevail over the perfect.”

See you at 3pm EST.

One of my favorite Netflix documentaries is “Sunderland ‘til I Die” about an English football club and its fans. We watched it early in the pandemic.

The theme, pasted below, is haunting and moves my soul. Written by a young man thinking of his beloved grandfather. Key lines:

if you could see me now/If you could see me now

I hope I’m making you proud…I hope I’m making you proud

I usually think of my mom, my grandparents, and my dear friend Pat O’Connell when I hear it.

Today, I thought of my kids.

Tomorrow I will see them all – God willing – to celebrate William’s pending nuptials in June. A hybrid bachelor/bachelorette weekend in DC. Brunch and baseball.

And lots of hugs.

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Q – This Memorial Day…are we making the fallen proud?