The NFL is back. The weather is (slowly) cooling. In nearly every aspect of life, autumn is upon us. The lone exception appears to be the Virginia elections, for which summer seems to hang on. The Virginia campaigns spent the actual summer waiting for … something. This being politics, we’d know it when we saw it, but from what anyone can tell, it hasn’t arrived yet. Meanwhile, the down-ballot effect (which, as 2017 dramatically reminded us, actually does exist) is also stuck in the fog of the future.
There have been contenders, to be sure. The fall of Kabul was the best news the Republican Party of Virginia had in months, but it doesn’t seemed to have moved the needle. Now, it’s possible the events in Afghanistan cancelled a drift toward McAuliffe and the Democrats, but those drifts (best seen in 1993, 1997, and 2009) usually go against the party in the White House, not in its favor.
Kabul did put a dent in President Biden’s approval ratings, but there’s less to that than meets the eye. Given that we have a former Governor running for his old job with his old party for the first time ever, the instinct to use 2013 as a model for 2021 is impossible to resist. That’s given Republicans hope, given how close 2013 was. Unfortunately for the RPV, Biden’s net approval as of this afternoon (-3.9 in RCP, -2.7 in 538) is better than Obama’s when McAuliffe beat Ken Cuccinelli (-8.6 in RCP, -6.9 in 538).
Closer to home, the California recall election – which could have been a chance for the parties to take stock of where they are – settled into the Democratic landslide that everyone should have expected. As of this hour (3PM on 9/19), “Keep Newsom” had 63.4% of the vote – exactly the same share as Joe Biden won in the state last year.
These days, Virginia elections are where September narratives go to die. The aforementioned GOP wins didn’t become clear until October. A similar late vibe finally propelled Tim Kaine to victory in 2005. Expected Democratic landslides in 2001 and 2013 were transformed into squeakers by Halloween.
As if that wasn’t enough, all of this comes amid the most competitive House of Delegates environment for a gubernatorial election since 1997. Suburban shifts and the 2019 partial re-draw have removed much (but not all) of the advantages House Republicans gave themselves in 2011 – to the point where they’re on the outside looking in. Still, flipping six seats isn’t that tall an order with the wind at your back. As for the Democrats, now defending a majority for the first time this century, favorable winds should be enough to keep power. Trouble is, neither side is getting so much as a breeze right now.
So while everyone and everything else adjusts to the changing seasons, Virginia voters, candidates, and pundits are held in a summer-like miasma, sleepwalking into October.
