CNU Wason Poll: McAuliffe Leads Youngkin, 50%-41%, For Virginia Governor
The Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University released its latest poll Thursday on Virginia’s statewide ticket race.
Summary of Key Findings
1. Former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Glenn Youngkin, 50% to 41%, among Virginia likely voters, with 6% undecided.
2. Seeking a third term, current Attorney General Mark Herring leads Republican Jason Miyares, 53% to 41%, with 6% undecided.
3. For lieutenant governor, Democrat Hala Ayala leads Republican Winsome Sears, 52% to 42%, with 6% undecided.
4. Democrats lead Republicans by 7 points among likely voters on the generic ballot test for the House of Delegates, 50% to 43%.
Further analysis from the Wason Center:
“As the sprint to Election Day begins, Democrats hold significant leads in all three statewide races, and lead the generic ballot for the House of Delegates, according to the results of this AARP Virginia and Wason Center for Civic Leadership poll of likely voters in the Nov. 2 general election. All three Democrats’ leads exceed the survey’s +/- 3.6% margin of error.
“Governor’s race: Former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe reaches the 50% threshold in leading Republican Glenn Youngkin, 50% to 41%, in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. McAuliffe is doing particularly well among women (55% to 36%) and younger voters (52% to 34%), while Youngkin has very solid support from the Republican base (95%). Regionally, Youngkin is strongest in South/Southwestern Virginia (53% to 37%), while McAuliffe does well in Northern Virginia (59% to 33%), the Richmond area (48% to 40%) and Hampton Roads (52% to 41%).
“ ‘These numbers reflect a state that continues to trend blue in presidential and statewide elections as demographic shifts endure in the Commonwealth,’ said Wason Center Research Director Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo. ‘While there is still room for movement in the race, Youngkin has a tightrope to walk between Trump supporters and more moderate voters across the suburbs of Virginia.’
“Lieutenant governor’s race: Democratic Del. Hala Ayala leads former Republican Del. Winsome Sears by 10 points (52% to 42%), with 6% undecided. Ayala’s support is driven primarily by younger voters (57% to 35%), Black voters (84% to 6%) and women (55% to 38%). Sears holds the Republican base (95%), voters in the South/Southwest region (54% to 37%) and a slight majority of white voters (51% to 44%).
“Attorney general’s race: Seeking a third term as attorney general, Democratic incumbent Mark Herring has a solid lead over Republican Del. Jason Miyares, 53% to 41%, with 6% undecided. Among the conventional Democratic base of women, Black voters and younger voters, incumbent Herring’s support slightly outperforms his running mates higher on the ballot.
“House of Delegates generic ballot: Democrats hold a 7-point advantage (50% to 43%) on the generic ballot test, which asks voters if they will cast their vote for the Republican or Democratic Party’s House of Delegates candidate in the Nov. 2 election. All 100 seats in the House are up for election.”
Dig deeper into the poll here.
