By Bill Bolling
I obviously don’t know if Donald Trump is serious about creating a third political party or not, but if he does, here’s what the likely impact will be:
1. Most Tea Party Republicans, as well as the nationalist and populist types that Trump drew into the Republican Party in 2016, will likely follow him to a new party. They are drawn by the power of Trump’s personality, and well as his unique brand of politics and policy. However, they will never have enough influence to win any meaningful political campaigns. They will likely draw no more than 15-20% of the popular vote.
2. The Republican Party, absent these Tea Party and Trump Republicans, will have an opportunity to return to being a more mainstream conservative party. That is a good thing. However, the GOP will be adversely impacted by the loss of a significant portion of its political base. In order to regain political relevance, the GOP will have to broaden its base by appealing to more moderate Democrats and political independents. That is also a good thing. It will take time, but this is how the GOP must rebuild.
3. The Democratic Party would be the real beneficiary of the advent of a “Trump party.” They would become much stronger in key swing states due to the division of the traditional Republican vote. However, over time this would likely drive the Democratic Party farther and farther to the left, which could result in more moderate Democrats moving to the repositioned Republican Party, thus recreating a greater degree of political stability.
Here’s the bottom line, Trump would gain nothing by leading the creation of a third political party, other than feeding his ego, and obtaining vengeance on Republicans who he feels abandoned him following the 2020 election.
But in an odd sort of a way, this may be the only way the Republican Party can survive the Trump era in the long run. Trump’s impact on the GOP has damaged the image of the Republican Party with many voters. If Trump and active Trump loyalists remain in the GOP this disconnect will continue. Sometimes you have to tear it down and start all over again.
The uncomfortable reality for Republicans is that they cannot win with Donald Trump as the face of the GOP, but they cannot win without the support of Trump loyalists on Election Day. Thus, the GOP finds itself in a truly untenable situation…..a situation it created in 2016 when it allowed Donald Trump to become the GOP standard bearer.
Bill Bolling served as the Lieutenant Governor of Virginia from 2006 – 2014 and was a member of the Virginia Senate representing the 4th District from 1996 – 2005. He and his wife Jean Ann live in the Richmond area.
Background:
–Trump jumps into a divisive battle over the Republican Party — with a threat to start a ‘MAGA Party’
Photo by Lynn R. Mitchell. (Left to right) Ed Gillespie, Bill Bolling, Mitt Romney
