Holsworth: July 17, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update
Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.
HOSPITALIZATIONS, CASES, TEST POSITIVITY UP
1. Hospitalizations Keep Ticking Up
The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association (VHHA) reported that there are 1171 COVID-19 patients in hospitals this morning. This is up from 1086 two days ago and is the largest number since we had 1171 patients on June 8.
The 1171 number is below the pandemic high of 1625 on May 8 but above the pandemic low of 783 on July 6. Hospital capacity is by no means overtaxed as we’re seeing in other states, but the downward trend that we had seen toward the end of June is no more.
2. Confirmed Cases Up from Last Week, Test Positivity Rate Continues to Inch Upwards
The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) reported 904 and 1002 new confirmed cases yesterday and today. This compares with 613 and 943 for the same two days last week.
The 7-day test positivity average continue to inch upwards, from a low of 5.8% to 7.6% today. If it continues to do so for another week, I’ll be substituting a new word for “inching.”
The new virus landscape in Virginia in which Hampton Roads leads the case rise in the 3 major metros continued unabated. In fact, the past two days saw more cases in the Hampton Roads communities than in NOVA and RVA combined. There were 875 new confirmed cases in the Hampton Roads locales and 523 in NOVA (304) and RVA (219).
The broadening geographical spread of the virus across the Commonwealth also continued. The absolute numbers are not huge in the smaller jurisdictions, but are concerning. Cases are increasing in Westmoreland County in the northeast, Danville/Pittsylvania on the southside, and Washington County in the southwest.
3. Adjustments/Modifications?
When Virginia moved into a (mostly) Phase 3 reopening, it was acknowledged that cases would likely rise and Governor Northam noted that he would make adjustments as necessary going forward. Earlier this week, he prohibited restaurants from alcohol sales after 11 p.m. and ramped up enforcement of existing restrictions.
As cases and test positivity continue to rise, two major questions emerge. First, will the Governor make more adjustments and impose more restrictions, especially related to the size of gatherings. For example, would the current 250 person guideline that would apply to wedding receptions be reduced?
Second, and perhaps more importantly, what does this case rise mean for opening colleges, universities, and K-12 schools.
Hampton University, a private school, has decided to hold only online classes this fall and provide a 15% tuition discount to all students. Administrators at Norfolk State University and Old Dominion University have to be extremely concerned about the increase in the virus across Hampton Roads.
All across the state, school boards a are now making decisions about K-12 reopening: fully online, hybrid, fully onsite (with a virtual opt-out)?
In some ways, a regional and localized approach to school reopening may make sense. Yet it appears that localities in the same region may wind up making very different decisions about reopening. I can imagine that many parents may be wondering whether the Commonwealth should be providing more detailed guidance to localities.
I might also add that we are likely to see private and parochial schools in the same locality making different decisions about reopening than the public system.
Six months ago, who could have possibly imagined that the educational landscape in Virginia for fall, 2020 brought about by COVID-19 would be taking this kind of shape and with what may well be a striking disparity in outcomes.
