Holsworth: June 4, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update
Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.
June 4, COVID-19 UPDATE
1. Downward Trend in Hospitalizations Continues
The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association’s (VHHA) reports the past two days show a continuing decline in the number of patients in hospitals.
In the past two days, the number of COVID-19 patients has declined from 1362 to 1266. April 14th was the last time that we saw the patient count this low-let me repeat, the lowest number since April 14th.
More good news. In the last two days, we’ve seen the lowest number of patients in ICUs (313 and 321 today) and on ventilators (171) since VHHA began reporting data on April 8.
In terms of hospitalizations, we may have gotten off the long plateau and, hopefully, could be starting the slide on the downward slope. But the virus has been extremely tricky in several states, so I want to wait a little longer before expressing this with complete confidence.
2. Case Rise Down Though Numbers Still Concerning
The Virginia Department of Health’s (VDH) daily case reports showed an increase of 666 cases yesterday and 951 cases today. The 800+ three day case average is down from, recently as last week, an 1100+ average.
The 7 day test positivity ratio also has been declining fairly rapidly. Last week it was at 13.9%, was at 11% yesterday and is 10.6% today.
That’s the good news.
The sheer number of cases, however, prompts us to remain cautious and vigilant. There were outbreaks yesterday at long-term care facilities, correctional institutions, and workplaces. The Roanoke Times reported that a federal study ranked infection control measures in Virginia’s skilled nursing facilities 48th in the nation.
Vigilance should mean continuing attention to the settings where COVID-19 has been most virulent – long-term care facilities, correctional institutions, and close quarter workplaces. It should include establishing genuine contact tracing and isolation procedures for those who do contract it. In addition we need to keep careful watch on any spikes that arise from the reopening of the economy, the ongoing protests and the general expansion of the sphere of social interaction.
It is encouraging to report what appears to be genuine downward movement. But its’s not yet time for complacency.
