Holsworth: May 28, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update

Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.

 

May 28, COVID-19 UPDATE: SMOLDERING

1. The Test Positivity Decline

There was a headline in one of the local papers after the numbers were released this morning highlighting the decline of the test positivity percentage since mid-April as an indicator that COVID-19 conditions are improving in the Commonwealth.

This was unfortunate.

The percentage has declined from near 20% to 13.9%. Yet we really can’t draw too many implications because the testing process has changed, actually somewhat for the better.

In mid-April, we were testing far fewer people, more of whom had to exhibit symptoms to even qualify for a test. The percentage of positives was going to be high. More recently, we are testing more people per day (which is good) and have, at least to a modest degree, made it easier for individuals to obtain tests.

If we can get to lower than 10% with a significant number of tests given every day, we might speak with more confidence. But, at the moment, I’d recommend caution about this indicator. I think that hospitalization numbers and the regional/locality breakdown of case number growth still tell us more.

2. The Hospitalization Plateau

-The Virginia Healthcare and Hospitalization Association’s daily report showed that the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals increased to 1502 from 1453. This is an increase from the 1351 number of four days ago, but below the pandemic high of 1625. Essentially, the the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals
is in the same range that it has been for the past month. On April 28, there were 1508 patients in hospitals, today 1502.

-We also saw an uptick today in the number of COVID-19 patients in ICUs, moving from 390-416. This is the first time in the month of May that we have had more than 400 patients in ICUs. The hospital system still has significant capacity, but we do want to watch if this number continues to increase.

3. Virginia’s Deadliest Day

– The number of reported COVID-19 deaths increased yesterday from 1281 to 1338. This was the deadliest day in the Commonwealth since the pandemic began. And the 102 deaths that have been reported in the last 2 days are the deadliest 2 days since the pandemic started.

4. Regional and Demographic Uneveness Persists

We have tried to show that the pandemic in Virginia, as in most states, has been uneven in its geographic and demographic spread.

This continues.

The daily percentage increase in confirmed cases in Hampton Roads communities has been consistently lower than in the other two major metros. For some time, the percentage increase in RVA was closer to Hampton Roads than NOVA. This has not been the case in the past few days where the percentage increase in RVA has been at or above the state average.

Outside of the major metros, the northern Valley and the Eastern Shore have been hit the hardest, but the issues that have devastated long-term care facilities and impacted correctional institutions occur throughout the Commonwealth.

African-Americans are 19.9% of the Virginia population, 21% of the cases, and 23.4% of the deaths for which there is information.

Individuals who identify as Hispanic or Latino are 9.9% of the population, 48.6% of the cases, and 11.1% of the deaths for which we have information.

Individuals over the age of 70 are 12.1% of the cases and 76.7% of the deaths for which we have information, highlighting the tragedy that has occurred in the long-term care facilities.