Holsworth: May 21, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update

Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.




1. Today’s Numbers

-The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association’s (VHHA) daily report showed that the number of patients in hospitals decreased from 1536 to 1491. These numbers remained with the range between 1413-1625 that we’ve seen since the beginning of the month.

The number of patients in ICUs, 351, decreased toward the low end of the month’s range (348-385) as did the number of patients on ventilators, 191 (range of 185-203).

This was the second consecutive day in which I’ve seen an above average number of discharges (255) and an above average number of estimated new admissions (210). I will keep track of this to see whether a clear explanation emerges.

– The Virginia Department of Health’s daily case report showed 1229 new cases, one of the highest totals since the pandemic began. The three-day moving average of new cases increased from 840 to 999.

– Yesterday’s increase was 3.9% statewide. Once more, we saw large disparities between the 3 major metros. NOVA had a 4.5% increase, RVA 2.7%, and Hampton Roads 2.2%.

A hot spot in NOVA such as Manassas City has 749 cases with a population of 39,300. Virginia Beach’s population of 442,707 has 584 cases.

2. The Parallel COVID-19 Universes

The presidential horse race numbers in the national Quinnipiac Poll (Q Poll) that was released yesterday received a good deal of attention. Since I’m not sure how seriously I take these early snapshots, I was more interested in the responses to other questions.

What I found most fascinating was the extent of partisan differences between Republicans (R), Independents (I), and Democrats (D) in answers to questions about the personal choices we’ll be making as we move into Social Distancing 2.0. Here’s a peek at the parallel universes:

Safe to Go to a Workplace: R-79%, I-56%, D, 35%

Safe to Go to a Restaurant: R-67%, I-37%, D, 11%

Safe to Go to Barber/Salon: R-75%, I-51%, D, 23%

Safe to Send Child to K-12 Schools: R-68%, I-39%, D-20%

All Required to Wear Mask in Public: R-40%, I-60%, D-87%

But there’s one point of modest agreement: nobody really wants to fly.

Safe to Get on an Airplane: R-39%, I-27%, D-7%

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