Holsworth: May 5, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update

Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.

 

May 5, COVID-19 Update, Virginia

ARE HOSPITALIZATIONS DECLINING? CASES AND DEATHS STEADY RISE; MAKING SENSE OF TEST POSITIVITY TRENDS

1. HOSPITALIZATIONS STAY ON PLATEAU

The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association’s (VHHA) daily report showed that total hospitalizations increased from 1463 TO 1496. There were 70 discharges yesterday so the estimated number of new admissions was 103.

The average number of estimated new admissions for the last 14 days has been 100 patients. Since April 8 when VHHA first published its data, the total numbers of patients hospitalized on any single day has remained within a range between 1289-1556.

There was some implication at the briefing yesterday that hospitalizations were down from a presumed surge point.

This would not be precisely accurate. The good news is that Virginia has never really experienced a surge on hospital capacity. At the same time, there really hasn’t been a decline since VHHA started publishing its data. We are on a plateau that really hasn’t declined or, thankfully, spiked back up.

The news on the severity front continues to be relatively positive. The number of patients in ICUs remain at the low end of the range since reporting began and the numbers of patients on ventilators is at a new low. Here are today’s numbers and the previous range.

Patients in ICUs: 361 (348-469)
Patients on Vents: 189 (192-303)

2. CASES AND DEATHS CONTINUE STEADY RISE

The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) reported 764 new cases yesterday, moving the statewide total to 20,256, a 3.9% day over day increase.

NOVA, the most populous area of the Commonwealth, continues to have the largest percentage increase of the 3 major metros, having a 4.2% increase yesterday. Hampton Roads was at 2.3% and RVA at 3.7%.

Deaths increased from 660-713. We have been averaging about 30 deaths a day for the past 8 days.

3. TEST POSITIVITY

I have included a table below that notes the number of tests reported per day since April 21, the number of positive cases, and the percentage of tests every day that came back positive.

At the briefing yesterday, it was noted that test positivity ratios were declining and that this was a positive signal.

Maybe

My interpretation is a little bit different.

It seems to me that the percentage of positive tests has been directly related to the number of tests and may not have changed very much. (You can look at the table and see for yourself.)

Every day that we have had more than 3900 tests given, the percentage of positive results ranges from 12% to 16% (I have excluded May 1 because that was the day in which we had the BACK REPORTING of the multiple tests given to the same individual.) When the number of tests go below 4,000, the percentage of positive results increases to 20%+.

So my interpretation is not a decline, but once again a plateau. Positive test results with a low teen percentage is certainly not a surge, but not necessarily a decline either.

DATE TESTS CASES % Positive
21-Apr 1619 640 40%
22-Apr 2424 636 26%
23-Apr 3740 732 20%
24-Apr 4497 596 13%
25-Apr 3163 772 24%
26-Apr 3940 604 15%
27-Apr 4062 565 14%
28-Apr 2573 804 31%
29-Apr 2554 622 24%
30-Apr 5536 885 16%
1-May 14805 1155 8%
2-May 6802 830 12%
3-May 6615 940 14%
4-May 3723 821 22%
5-May 5150 764 15%

Later today, I’ll be posting an interpretative piece on the growing trend by governors to balance controlling COVID-19 with reopening the economy.