Holsworth: April 15, 2020, Virginia and RVA Covid-19 Update
Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.
April 15, COVID-19 UPDATE: VIRGINIA AND RVA
HOSPITALIZATIONS RELATIVELY FLAT, DEATHS WAY UP
We are beginning to see the encouraging news, bad news trend that we have seen in other states.
1. The data from the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association (VHHA) showed that the overall number of hospitalizations ticked slightly upward on a day-over-day basis (1282-1298).
One week ago, on April 8, the number of patients in Virginia hospitals was 1289. The one-week plateau in hospitalizations is encouraging.
2. At the same time, the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) reported the LARGEST ONE-DAY SPIKE in deaths since the pandemic began, moving from 154-195, a 27% increase over the last 24 hours.
The data also showed a decline in the number of patients in ICUs, down to 394 from 422 , the lowest count since VHHA started providing this information on April 7. The number of patients on ventilators also showed a significant decrease from 276-234.
Apparently, a portion of yesterday’s decrease in patients in ICUs on ventilators can be attributed to those who did not survive. VHHA does not report deaths that occur in the hospital setting.
We have seen this trend in reporting in other states – because of the high fatality rate of patients on hospital ventilators and people in long-term care facilities who are not counted in hospitalization numbers, deaths may increase while other indicators of disease severity and prevalence improve.
3. VDH reported a total of 6500 cases in Virginia, a 5% increase over yesterday’s total of 6171.
This is the second day in a row that the percentage increase was below the 10% increases we saw all last week. At the same time, the number of people getting tested on a daily basis (1406 yesterday) has declined from more than 2000 per day to the 1200-1400 per day range.
This may be an issue of test availability, but I am beginning to think that it may actually represent a decline in people experiencing the kind of symptoms that meet the relatively stringent criteria for test eligibility.
4. Canterbury Rehab now has the tragic distinction of being the single facility in the country that has experienced the largest number of deaths. The New York Times story on Canterbury Rehab also notes that one quarter of all deaths in New York have occurred in long-term care facilities.
5. The Richmond Times Dispatch reported on the initial collection of demographic data for the City of Richmond, noting that “more than twice as many black people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 as white people in Richmond despite accounting for a roughly equal share of the city’s population.”
