A Look at Virginia House Rankings Going Into Election Day

Four days out from the 2019 election in Virginia, the narrative seems to be boiling down to local versus national.

Nationally, Virginia is a bellwether, closely watched to see what campaign messaging is working. Are local candidates influenced by Trump, good or bad, in a proving ground that’s setting up for 2020. In the mix of it all is money, lots of money — the “mother’s milk of politics.”

Every seat in the General Assembly is up for election this year — all 100 House of Delegates seats and all 40 State Senate seats — in a battle for control. Republicans hold the majority in the State Senate 21-19, and in the House by one seat.

After campaigning with high profile Dems and celebrities, Democrats will close out with U.S. Senator Mark Warner barnstorming the Commonwealth to get out the vote with more than 20 candidates on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

Here’s a look at a few of the more competitive House of Delegates races.

#1. House District 40 (Fairfax County, Prince William County)
Incumbent: Tim Hugo (R)
Challenger: Dan Helmer (D)
Huge money spent in October. Dems dropped $500K in TV buys. Polls are tightening. High turnout percentage being modeled here.

#2. House District 85 (parts of Virginia Beach)
Incumbent: Open (Dem incumbent Cheryl Turpin is running for Frank Wagner’s SD-7 seat)
Candidates: Alex Askew (D) and Rocky Holcomb (R)
Money heavy. Vice President Pence visits this weekend. Watch absentee ballots with SD-7 overlapping.

#3. House District 73 (Western Henrico)
Incumbent: Open (Dem incumbent Debra Rodman is running for SD-12)
Candidates: Rodney Willett (D) and Mary Margaret Kastelberg (R)
Republicans playing heavy here with a competitive Senate race overlap.

#4. House District 83 (parts of cities of Norfolk and Virginia Beach)
Incumbent: Chris Stolle (R)
Challenger: Nancy Guy (D)
Big money being spent on this race.

#5. House District 28 (Fredericksburg, Stafford County)
Incumbent: Open (GOP incumbent Bob Thomas lost in June primary)
Candidates: Incumbent Robert “Bob” Thomas Jr. (R) lost the June primary. Candidates are Joshua Cole (D) and Paul Milde III (R).
Known as former House Speaker Bill Howell’s seat, Thomas won when Howell retired in 2017. Money continues to flow in as Democrats look for a pick-up seat.

#6. House District 66 (Colonial Heights, Chesterfield County)
Incumbent: Current House Speaker Kirk Cox (R)
Challengers: Sheila Bynum-Coleman (D) and Linnard Harris Sr. (I)
This is a highly competitive district with the Democratic challenger is pushing hard to the end. Cox has raised $1.8 million while Bynum-Coleman has raised $1.4 million.

#7. House District 76 (Suffolk)
Incumbent: Chris Jones (R)
Challenger: Clinton Jenkins (D)
Jones found himself redistricted into a blue district where U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine won reelection in 2018 by 62% of the vote.

#8. House District 27 (Chesterfield)
Incumbent: Roxann Robinson (R)
Challenger: Larry Barnett (D)
Barnett has slightly outraised Robinson, $853K to $741K. This is a rematch for these two; Barnett lost by 124 votes in 2017.

#9. House District 10 (Loudoun and Frederick)
Incumbent: Wendy Gooditis (D)
Challenger: Randy Minchew (R)
A 2017 rematch. Gooditis has raised $1.3 million to Minchew’s $1 million.

#10. House District 21 (Virginia Beach)
Incumbent: Kelly Fowler (D)
Challenger: Shannon Kane (R)
Democratic pick-up in the Blue Wave of 2017. Fowler has raised $803K while Kane has raised $338K but Republicans started to spend here in advance of Pence visit this weekend.

#11. House District 72 (Henrico)
Incumbent: Schuyler VanValkenburg (D)
Challenger: GayDonna Vandergriff (R)
VanValkenburg has raised $824K; Vandergriff $575K. GOP is moving money here so the messaging may be working. Competitive Senate district overlap.

#12. House District 31 (Prince William County and Fauquier County)
Incumbent: Elizabeth Guzman (D)
Challenger: DJ Jordan (R)
This was Scott Lingamfelter’s seat when he was swept out in the Blue Wave of 2017. Republicans, however, are enthusiastic about Jordan and hope for a potential upset. Guzman has raised almost $1 million to Jordan’s $600K.

#13. House District 50 (Prince William and Manassas)
Incumbent: Lee Carter (D)
Challenger: Ian Lovejoy (R)
Carter has been slightly outraised by the Republican challenger. Will that be a good sign for Lovejoy?

#14. House District 84 (Virginia Beach)
Incumbent: Glenn Davis (R)
Challenger: Karen Mallard (D)
In a district that is turning increasingly blue, Davis has shown strong leadership. Dems going strong for this seat with an infusion of money; fundraising 2-to-1 for Mallard.

#15. House District 13 (Prince William and Manassas Park)
Incumbent: Danica Roem (D)
Challenger: Kelly McGinn (R)
Roem has proven to be popular in this district. Money has poured into this race: Roem has $1 million, McGinn has $375K.

#16. House District 94 (Newport News)
Incumbent: David Yancey (R)
Challenger: Shelly Simonds (D) and Michael Bartley (L)
This was the seat decided by a random drawing from a bowl in 2017 that gave Republicans the House majority. Dems smell blood in the water and are pouring money into this race: Simonds has raised over $1 million to Yancey’s $640K.

#17. House District 51 (Prince William)
Incumbent: Hala Ayala (D)
Challenger: Rich Anderson (R)
Anderson lost this seat in 2017 to Ayala by 14 points. Can he win it back? Ayala has raised $1.2 million with solid Democratic support; Anderson has raised a quarter of a million even with heavy GOP backing. Dems want to hold onto this seat.

#18. House District 75 (parts of Brunswick, Southampton, Sussex, Greensville, Lunenburg counties and parts of Franklin and Emporia cities)
Incumbent: Roslyn Tyler (D)
Challenger: Otto Wachsmann (R)
Both are neck-in-neck with fundraising. Could be a late-breaker … pick-up for the GOP?

#19. House District 100 (Norfolk, Accomack and Northampton)
Incumbent:Rob Bloxom (R)
Challenger: Phil Hernandez (D)
Incumbent spending late. Money raised: $830K by challenger; $240K by incumbent.

#20. House District 62 (parts of Chesterfield and Prince George counties and Hopewell)
Incumbent: Open (GOP incumbent Ingraham Riley did not seek reelection)
Candidates: Carrie Coyner (R) and Lindsey Dougherty (D)
Republican candidate has outraised the Democrat in this Republican-leaning district that went with Gillespie +3, Vogel +6 in 2017; Kaine +6 in 2018.

#21. House District 91 (Hampton)
Incumbent: Open (GOP incumbent Gordon Helsel did not seek reelection)
Candidates: Colleen Holcomb (R) and Martha Mugler (D)
Redistricted earlier this year; Kaine won with 57% in 2018. Mugler is a moderate Dem who has raised $604K; Holcomb, a Family Foundation lawyer, has raised $108K. Good chance for a Dem pick-up.

#22. House District 81 (Virginia Beach and Chesapeake)
Incumbent: Barry Knight (R)
Challenger: Len Myers (D)
Democrats dropped $200K late. Could have overlap with SD-8 (DeSteph).

#23. House District 68 (Chesterfield, Richmond, and Henrico)
Incumbent: Dawn Adams (D)
Challenger: Garrison Coward (R)
The seat formerly held by Manoli Loupassi who was defeated in the 2017 Blue Wave. There has been drama in this race surrounding Adams who has been sued by her former legislative aide alleging hacking. Coward has GOP support but has fallen behind in fundraising ($445K to $223K) as Dems work to keep the seat.

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