Update on the 2nd District Race

First things first: incumbent Representative Scott Taylor is set to thrash his primary opponent, Mary Jones of James City County. She has raised roughly $28,000 so far, has no natural base of support (except maybe her neighbors in JCC), and draws essentially the same twelve people to every event she holds across the district. Taylor, meanwhile, boasts nearly $1.5 million in funds raised, has Virginia Beach (and the roughly 60% of the 2nd District it accounts for) in his pocket, and enjoys the natural advantages that come with being an incumbent.

Jones is running her campaign based on essentially nothing but saying, “Scott Taylor doesn’t support President Trump’s agenda.” Unfortunately for Jones and her unscrupulous consultants, facts and numbers are very stubborn things. Indeed, Taylor has voted in line with the President’s agenda to the tune of 98.4% of the time.

With Jones being relegated to irrelevance after running a race with no money and even less of a message, Taylor will likely face a rematch against his opponent from 2016: Newport News and 3rd District resident, Shaun Brown. As far as the six Democrats in the primary go, Brown is running away with the money. This time it’s just not via the wire fraud and theft of government property in the amount of $400,000 that she was indicted for. She’s posted over $700,000 in fundraising so far, which is fairly impressive considering the DNC will bolster that when the time comes, while only one other opponent is reporting anything at all (Virginia Beach school teacher Karen Mallard with $21,870).

The rest of the Democrats in the field are mostly unknown individuals seeking office for the first time. David Nygaard, a jeweler and former Republican, may be the only one with any kind of name recognition due to having been in business in Virginia Beach for some time.

By way of review, Congressman Taylor faces a primary opponent with no cash and a message that’s about as compelling and informative as watching paint dry, and the Democratic front-runner is from another district and was indicted last year for stealing money from a program intended to provide food to low-income children at school. I’ll be the first to admit that 2016 taught us an election ain’t over ’til it’s over. But from the looks of it, if you’re reading this, live in the 2nd District, and you don’t like Congressman Taylor for some reason, you might be better off declaring your candidacy and running yourself, as it stands right now.

  • Wait, what? This analysis is completely wrong. In fact, the Democratic field features at least two potentially very strong candidates — Elaine Luria (endorsed by Sen. Lynwood Lewis, by the way) and Karen Mallard – while Shaun Brown had Cash on Hand of NEGATIVE $2,759 at the end of 4Q17, and she will definitely NOT be the Democratic nominee this time around. As for Nygaard, the guy was a big Cooch supporter, now running as a Democrat, so don’t see him going anywhere. Anyway, bottom line is that it’s between Mallard and Luria for the Democratic nomination, with Dems having a significant shot at winning VA-02 this November. See https://bluevirginia.us/2018/01/and-then-there-were-3-4-5-democrats-running-in-va-02-against-rep-scott-taylor-r for more on VA-02 and https://bluevirginia.us/2018/01/4q2017-fundraising-numbers-are-coming-in for more on 4Q07 fundraising numbers.

    • I know Democrats are enjoying a wave in Virginia – independents here don’t like Trump and they are furious with the ugly rhetoric coming from the populists in our party. But that may not translate into victories in Republican Districts. They hate Trump, not the Republican Party. We’ll hold onto a lot of independents in November.

      • The point of my comment wasn’t about who was likely to win, but about the fact that this post is filled with several major factual errors.

        • David Obermark

          Well Lowell, I am sure you will be more than willing to fill us up with your own false facts.

          • old_redneck

            That you, Boris?

      • old_redneck

        Trump IS the Republican Party. Pull your head out of your ample ass.

        “. . . they are furious with the ugly rhetoric coming from the populists in our party.” No. They now realize the Republican Party is the party of hate, bigotry, big money; screw the little guy; what’s mine is mine, what’s your is up for grabs; women belong in the kitchen barefoot and pregnant.

        Go back to the Bullshitting Elephant where the dimwits still believe you are the smartest creature to walk upright.

      • old_redneck

        Paul Ryan orders security to throw a teacher out of his Florida fund-raiser.

        House Speaker Paul Ryan is a tool of the National Rifle Association,
        said his would-be Democratic challenger after Ryan told a Florida
        teacher that he “didn’t want to talk politics” when she criticized his
        response to Wednesday’s deadly school shooting in Broward County.

        “We need a speaker who will listen to everyone, not just the NRA and
        other special interests who cut him checks,” Democratic candidate and
        ironworker Randy Bryce said after the Friday night encounter between
        Ryan and the fifth-grade teacher, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
        reported. Bryce, who goes by the nickname Iron Stache, is seeking the
        Democratic nomination to run against Ryan in the upcoming 2018 midterms.

        Bryce also attacked Ryan for going to Florida to “raise money” rather than to support a “grieving community.”

        The teacher, Maria Thorne, and another protester were escorted out
        of the Ritz-Carlton in Key Biscayne by security Friday, according to The
        Miami Herald. In recalling her exchange with Ryan, Thorne said she
        introduced herself as a teacher to the House Speaker, who responded,

        “Nice?” she questioned. “You’re here celebrating the death of 17
        children.” After Ryan said he didn’t want to discuss the issue, Thorne
        and a friend chanted “No more guns” and were ejected from the event.

    • Turbocohen

      Blue Bearing Drift may be hiring, They are guns out for the RPV.

    • David Obermark

      How dare Lowell comment on this blog when dissenting voices on his own blog are not tolerated? He has an echo chamber going on over there at Blue Virginia, where even voices from within his own party are banned if they disagree with him.

      I guess he expects the Bearing Drift community to welcome him with open arms?

      Give it a test. Go onto Blue Virginia and comment. Unless you subscribe to Lowell’s agenda, you will not last long even if you are a Democrat.

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  • old_redneck

    The numbers so far:

    Mueller’s investigation: 6 arrests, 5 convictions, 13 indictments

    Clinton and Benghazi: 0

    Clinton and emails: 0

    Obama’s non-citizenship: 0

    Obama’s wiretap of Trump: 0

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