Cook Political Report Moves Brat’s 2018 Race From ‘Solid R’ to ‘Likely R’

The Cook Political Report has changed the 2018 election status for 12 U.S. House districts across the country.

The reason that is of interest to Virginia is because they downgraded Dave Brat in the 7th Congressional District from “Solid R” to “Likely R.”

Here is Cook’s assessment of the Virginia district, published Friday:

VA-07: Dave Brat (R) – Central: Richmond suburbs, Culpeper
Likely Republican. This wealthy district in the Richmond suburbs was once the most reliably pro-GOP establishment part of the state. Then in 2014, Brat pulled off the upset of the decade by defeating House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. And in 2016, court-ordered redistricting removed deeply conservative Hanover County from the 7th CD. Last year, President Trump lost the suburban portion of the 7th CD and won it by just six points overall.

The blue trend line of Henrico County and lingering ill will towards Brat on the part of old pro-Cantor forces could make this an interesting “reach” in a wave scenario. Democrats haven’t decided between a primary or a convention. Five are running, including 2016 nominee Eileen Bedell, but the two strongest are former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger, who lives in Henrico, and retired Marine Col. Dan Ward, who lives on a farm in more rural Orange.

According to Ballotpedia, in addition to Bedell, Spanberger, and Ward there are three more candidates: Kim Gower, Helen Alli, and Janelle Noble. No GOP challengers have announced to go up against Brat.

The 7th Congressional District includes Culpeper, Goochland, Hanover, Louisa, New Kent, and Orange counties, as well as parts of Chesterfield, Henrico, and Spotsylvania counties and Richmond City.