Memo to Virginia Democrats: Beware Complacency in 2017

So, how does the (relatively) newly minted in-house conservative Democrat see the 2017 elections?

Whaddya mean, you didn’t ask?

Seriously, though, Democrats appear to have had a glitteringly good run in Virginia recently: statewide election sweeps in 2012 and 2013, Mark Warner’s re-election in 2014, and Hillary Clinton’s Commonwealth win this year are all being taken as signs that Virginia is going blue. In fact, the only Republicans to win a statewide election in this decade are Bob McDonnell (who in 2013 raised taxes higher than any Democrat ever did), Bill Bolling (who did more damage to Republicans in 2013 than any Democrat ever did), and Ken Cuccinelli (dispatched by the Democrats – and in part by Bolling himself, perhaps – in that very year). Add to that an uncontested gubernatorial nomination (for now), compared to an apparent four-way brawl on the other side, and it’s all over but the shouting.

Yet, as the saying goes, not all that glitters is gold. For all the Democrats’ recent success, only one of them in the last three years actually won over 50% of the vote (to be fair, that is the current presumed nominee for Governor, Ralph Northam). Even Clinton herself fell just short of majority territory, relying on her opponents to divide the rest.

Moreover, the Democrats haven’t exactly been inspiring in their messages to Virginians in recent years. Terry McAuliffe essentially ran an endless Stop Cuccinelli campaign; Northam himself similarly spoke about E.W. Jackson and nothing else. Mark Warner ignored Ed Gillespie, but instead of using the time and treasure to present a vision of progress for Virginia (which is not the same as a “progressive vision”, by the way), the incumbent Senator retreated into his shell and relied on his previous laurels to win the day. They almost didn’t. The Clinton failure nationally had an faint echo here in Virginia – otherwise she would have been north of 50%.

Of course, most Democrats would respond that wins are wins, and Virginia’s demographics point to a permanent advantage. But Republicans found a way around that advantage nationwide this month, and for all their faults, each Republican aspirant for Governor has their own way of breaking Virginia’s Blue Wall.

Gillespie can point to Loudoun County, which he won in 2014. Corey Stewart has been elected county-wide in Prince William – four times, including twice during the Obama Administration. Frank Wagner can erase – and possibly overcome – Northam’s home-field advantage in Hampton Roads. Finally, Rob Wittman is the only one with constituents in Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia – and they’ve elected him despite voting for Democrats up-ballot four times previously.

In other words, the Democrats can’t just roll out their helmets on the field. They – ahem, we need to engage on the issues that matter to Virginians. It will take much more than merely turning our noses at the Republican candidates and hoping a majority of the Commonwealth follows suit.

That said, we do have some unusual advantages. Every Republican aspirant for Governor has either voted to enact or helped to craft a tax increase at the state level. Meanwhile, the incumbent was the first Governor in 17 years to propose an actual tax cut – only to be rejected by the other party running the legislature.

That Governor was one of ours (T-Mac), and the legislative majorities that shot it down play for their team.

This gives the Democrats the opportunity to run as friends of the taxpayer for the first time in 25 years. Back then, the Democrats rejected the opportunity, ran away from Doug Wilder’s record as Governor, and set the party on a path of decline that led to the General Assembly being taken from them. This time, it could ensure Republicans have complete control of the redistricting process in 2021, while continuing to engage in what they do best: using social conservatism as a cover for profligate spending and higher taxes.

We shouldn’t let them get away with that. The question is: do Messrs. Northam and Herring understand this?