Amid the Continuing Debate, the Leftist Cause for Brexit Breaks Through
This is the fifth installment of my continuing yet irregular series on the British referendum to Leave or Remain in the European Union. Here are the first four posts I wrote. The referendum will be held on 23 June.
For the most part, Remain had the better of the week. Then came tonight.
Tuesday evening, Prime Minister David Cameron did another turn with an audience, this time from ITV. He was “paired” with UKIP leader Nigel Farage (like last week, there was no actual debate; rather each took questions from the audience). Cameron was expected to have the better night…mainly because he isn’t Farage. The UKIP chief has a narrow base of support, and little tolerance from outside it, which Cameron used in his favor. From Tom Goodenough reference to the London Times.
David Cameron’s comments about presenting the referendum as a choice between a ‘broad-based cross-party coalition’ and ‘Nigel Farage’s Little England option’ are the focus. It’s clear from this just why he wanted to appear on stage at the same event as Farage. He hopes that the Ukip leader looks like a toxic option compared to the numerous politicians who are backing him over the referendum.
As for Farage, he largely held his own – perhaps a little too much when he told a female audience member to “calm down” – but didn’t exactly win over any converts. In fact, the only mind changed this week was Sarah Wallaston MP – from Leave to Remain. That pretty much ensured Remain won Wedenesday.
Tonight was expected to be more of the same, although it was an actual debate: three Remainers facing off against three for Leave. Most of focus prior to the debate was on ex-London Mayor Boris Johnson – who, in addition to being one of the leading voices for Leave – happened to be the only man in the six. Most were waiting for Boris to slip into being patronizing, or flippant, or any other manner which would make his personality yank the enterprise off course.
If Tim Stanley’s view is conventional widsom, that did not happen.
Could he handle two hours of fact-slinging? Would he patronise the women? Would be get bored and wander off? In the end, he did well. Very well. He was on top of the data and threw facts out with ease. He wasn’t afraid to attack Dave. And when the jokes came his way he brushed them off with a Reaganesque “there you go again.” Most importantly, he was serious. Faced with a TV camera, Boris’ temptation can be to seduce and amuse. On this occasion, he showed that he could convince, too.
Yet even Stanley didn’t think Boris was the most important person on stage.
Gisela Stuart was Leave’s most effective spokesperson. Partly because she is Labour and thus obviously not of the view that Brexit will lead to the end of women’s suffrage and the return of slavery. Partly because she is German-born and, thus, unlikely to be anti-immigrant. But also because she spoke with reason rather than faux-passion.
Indeed, I’m guess that for most voters in the UK, Stuart (a Labour MP) was the first Labour Leave voice they had heard – and the voice of an immigrant, no less. Every time she spoke, Cameron’s “Nigel Farage’s Little England option” seemed that much sillier. Meanwhile, a leading (and grating) voice of Labour’s left (Dennis Skinner) also announced he’s for Leave.
The Pro-Leave Labour voices are significant for more than just scoring points against Cameron’s rhetoric. With the Conservatives divided, but largely supporting Leave (among the rank and file, that is), and UKIP largely balancing out the expected Nationalists’ votes (SNP, Plaid Camry, SDLP, and Sinn Fein back Remain), the In side needs a heavy Labour turnout strongly in favor of staying. Skinner and Stuart could conceivably out huge holes in that strategy. Their exposure to the voters could be a game changer.
I should note: emphasis on “could” – and even if the game does change, it doesn’t end. We’re still two weeks out – and all we really know is that voter registration has closed.
Today was enough for Leave to wipe out the problems of the week. Whether it will be enough for victory in a fortnight is an entirely different question.
