“A week is a long time in politics.” – Harold Wilson, British Prime Minister 1964-70, 1974-76
Even half a week can be long enough.
Donald Trump’s inevitable nomination (as predicted by Brian Schoeneman on Wednesday) may still come to pass, but it will certainly take a lot longer than presumed on the 2nd of March, and it’s increasingly possible it may not happen at all. That’s what one day’s results can do.
For starters, someone won more delegates last night (at least, as of 9:40 AM, as they sort out Louisiana) than Trump did. Trump’s two victories (Louisiana and Kentucky) weren’t enough to counter Ted Cruz’s much larger wins in Kansas and Maine. More inmportantly, Cruz won well outside his presumed comfort zone in Maine. The Pine Tree State had a pro-Trump Governor (Paul Le Page), and turnout that was more than three times the number in the Romney-Paul battle of 2012. Trump himself had more caucus participants than all of the 2012 candidates combined – and he was still over 2,000 behind Cruz. Third, with the exception of Louisiana, Trump couldn’t break 35% – a figure that would give him all sorts of trouble in a three-person race, let alone a two-person one.
Finally, and most importantly, Saturday ensured Cruz would survive the Ides of March primaries, which could knock out Marco Rubio and John Kasich. Unlike many others, I’ve always felt the 15th was the critical day on the assumption that Trump would have wiped out all of his competition via victories in Ohio and Florida. Now, Cruz has the rationale to go all the way to the end (unlike recently earlier years, California – still the biggest delegate prize – has reverted to its end-of-the-line place in the calendar).
As for Rubio and Kasich, both still have paths to nomination, however narrow: they are both looking to be the lone alternative to Cruz and Trump. In each of their minds, they see winner-take-all states and Congressional districts in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and the aforementioned California open up to them. If one wins their home state while the other loses, then it’s about piling up enough delegates to pass Cruz and then offer him the second slot on the ticket to block Trump. Of course, if both win, that could be a problem; someone would like have to withdraw before New York (April 19, proportional delegates, but with a 20% minimum, if memory serves).
However, even if both lose, Trump doesn’t have this sewn up. If Cruz can get Rubio’s endorsement (admittedly not a small if), that more than makes up for Trump winning the 99 Sunshine State delegates (Rubio has over 110).
Of course, in a Trump-Cruz race, many “establishment” Republicans could decide for Trump (which, fwiw, would be enough for me to leave the party, but that’s a separate issue). That said, the notion that Trump can largely coast to the nomination took a hit yesterday.
