Virginia exit polls show Trump winning but Rubio exceeding expectations

As I write this, the results of the Virginia Republican primary are not yet known.  (The news media already called the Democrat primary for Hillary Clinton).  But if the exit polls are to be believed, Marco Rubio will exceed expectations and come in a strong second to Donald Trump, with an anemic result for Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Ben Carson.

Virginia exit polls show Donald Trump won men, whites, older voters, less educated voters, evangelicals, and lower-income voters.

Marco Rubio, however, won women, non-whites, younger voters, more educated voters, and middle-to-upper income voters.

35% of the voters made up their minds in the last week, while 36% had made up their minds more than a month ago.  By 21 points, voters who made up their minds in the last week went for Marco Rubio (38%) over Trump (17%).  Voters who made up their minds more than a week ago went for Trump over Rubio by 15 points.

Geographically, Rubio won the DC suburbs over Trump by 16 points and tied Trump in the Northern Virginia exurbs and Richmond.  Trump beat Rubio in Hampton Roads by a small margin and in Central/Western Virginia by a large margin (21 points).

By a large margin (33 points), the 16% of voters whose most important issue was electability thought Rubio is more electable than Trump.

Also, somewhat surprisingly, by a pretty large margin (10 points) voters favored a path to citizenship over deportation for illegal immigrants.

And the voters weren’t as angry as conventional wisdom has led us to believe.  34% of voters said they were angry vs. 51% who were dissatisfied but not angry.  Trump won the former convincingly (22 points), while Rubio won the latter (by 10 points).

Almost half of the voters wanted someone from outside of the political establishment, and Trump won those voters overwhelmingly by 44 points over Rubio.  42% wanted someone with relevant experience, and Rubio won those voters convincingly by 31% over Ted Cruz and John Kasich.

By a small margin, a majority of voters felt betrayed by the Republican establishment. Interestingly, Trump won both groups with Rubio a close 2nd in both groups.

By a 15-point margin, the voters would be dissatisfied if Ted Cruz won the nomination.  The voters also would be dissatisfied with a Trump nomination by a 9-point margin.  By contrast, by a 20-point margin the voters would be satisfied with a Rubio nomination.