Virginia Primary and Super Tuesday – Open Thread
Update: Please use this post to offer your thoughts on the election. Also, please listen to Bearing Drift’s own Brian Schoeneman, Norm Leahy, Matt Hall, and J.R. Hoeft hosted by WCHV’s Joe Thomas tomorrow night for election analysis and interviews from 7-10 pm. Listen Live!”
Tomorrow is Super Tuesday. We will not call it the “SEC Primary” because . . . just, no. It’s Super Tuesday. Virginia, along with 10 other states, will have their delegates up for grabs, a total of 595 of the 1,237 needed to win the nomination on the first ballot in Cleveland. This represents almost half the needed delegates, and slightly less than 25% of the total number of 2,340 delegates up for grabs during the primary season. The breakdown is as follows:
Alabama · 50 delegates
Alaska · 28 delegates
Arkansas · 40 delegates
Georgia · 76 delegates
Massachusetts · 42 delegates
Minnesota · 38 delegates
Oklahoma · 43 delegates
Tennessee · 58 delegates
Texas · 155 delegates
Vermont · 16 delegates
Virginia · 49 delegates
Generally, in terms of polling numbers, Trump has hit about or near his polling numbers, while both Rubio and Cruz have been outperforming their polling numbers. Kasich has one of the better ground operations in the state, although Rubio has had more volunteers in Northern Virginia compared to the other candidates. As an undecided, I was surprised at the lack of engagement from most campaigns – only one door knocker, for Rubio, hit my house. Although the Democrats did knock for the previous owners – first time I’ve seen them with a bad list.
In terms of predictions, I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump is going to win Virginia. Rubio has been pushing hard, as has Kasich, while Cruz has been more noticeably absent. In the rest of the Super Tuesday states, with the exception of Cruz’s home state of Texas, it’s unlikely that anybody but Trump will pull off any major wins. Here are my predictions for tomorrow.
Virginia – Trump 35%, Rubio 29%, Cruz 23%, Kasich 7%, Carson 6%, the rest of the field less than 5%.
In terms of the other states, I’m not going to give percentages, just the order in which I expect them to end up.
Alabama · Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, Carson
Alaska · Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Kasich
Arkansas · Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Kasich
Georgia · Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Carson
Massachusetts · Trump, Rubio, Kasich/Cruz toss-up, Carson
Minnesota · Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, Carson
Oklahoma · Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Carson
Tennessee · Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Kasich
Texas · Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Carson, Kasich
Vermont · Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, Carson
The takeaways?
Trump wins everywhere. Cruz and Rubio battle it out for second place – also known as “first loser” in Trump speak – and Kasich brings up the rear.
Since most of these states are proportional with a winner-take-all only if somebody gets a set significant percentage, the bulk of these delegates will be apportioned to each campaign, meaning that even winning doesn’t mean Trump will take an insurmountable lead. That being said, and despite whatever attempts at spinning we can expect from the other campaigns (Rubio will talk about his “strong showing” and Cruz will note that “a majority of Republicans cast their ballots for someone other than Trump” – book both of those quotes), it will be almost impossible for Trump to be stopped if he runs the table tomorrow and beats Cruz in Texas. Even if he loses Texas but wins every other state, Texas can be written off because of it being Cruz’s home state.
What say you?
