In our Washington Post Sunday sermon, Paul Goldman and I look back on Mark Herring’s decision not to seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2017. Going by the numbers, it just doesn’t make much sense:
A recent poll found Herring leading Northam among Democrats by an overwhelming 33 percent to 9 percent for their party’s 2017 gubernatorial nomination. Democratic voters had a 33 percent to 13 percent favorable view of Herring but split 19 percent to 18 percent on Northam. The lieutenant governor, a Tidewater physician with an impressive résumé, announced his run for governor several months ago.
Why, then, did front-runner Herring make this historically early exit and concession, especially since the latest poll shows Northam trailing the strongest potential GOP nominee — 2014 Senate candidate Ed Gillespie — by 7 points?
And history doesn’t help:
The most obvious explanation for Herring’s surprise decision: It is personal, outside the parameters of politics. Perhaps he doesn’t hunger for the power and pomp of the governorship. This would make him unique among modern attorneys general.
Making the run is no sure thing. Democratic Attorney General Jerry Baliles in 1985, Republican attorneys general Jim Gilmore (1997) and Robert F. McDonnell (2009) rode landslides into the governor’s office. But Democrats Miller in 1977 and Terry (1993) lost, as did Republican attorneys general Marshall Coleman in 1981, Mark Earley (2001), Jerry Kilgore (2005) and Ken Cuccinelli II (2013).
There are other possibilities, but as is increasingly the case in a key swing state like Virginia, presidential politics may be at play in Herring’s decision:
Herring surely expects former secretary of state Hillary Clinton to be the next president. McAuliffe, one of her closest friends, would be in line for a major Cabinet post. If he resigns in early 2017, Northam becomes the incumbent governor. If Herring were running for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, he would be in what the British call a “sticky wicket.”
Other Democrats would be running for attorney general, leaving Herring unable to seek reelection, stuck running against an incumbent Democratic governor. McAuliffe says he intends to serve out his term. But if a president and close friend says she needs him, would McAuliffe refuse?
Herring’s decision not to run, then, might be a smart move to prevent being left holding an empty political bag.
We made a number of assumptions here, and due to space limitations, didn’t even touch the Tim Kaine as Veep candidate possibility.
But the other side of the story is the GOP. The PPP poll noted in the story showed Ken Cuccinelli the favorite to make a second attempt for the big chair. There have been minor rumblings he might do so.
History tells us re-runs are tough to sell. Creigh Deeds couldn’t do it, neither could George Allen, or Marshall Coleman or Wyatt Durrette.
We were far more interested in Ed Gillespie, whose political trajectory bears a closer resemblance to Mark Warner with every passing day.
The conventional wisdom is that Gillespie has Tim Kaine on his mind and that it’s Mark Obenshain who is the putative frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination.
Perhaps. But looking at the numbers, looking at history, looking at Ralph Northam…2017 may be too winnable for Gillespie to pass by.
