The New York Times has a long piece analyzing Donald Trump’s political base and staying power. The short version? He’s for real — but with important caveats. The biggest is that his campaign, such as it is, doesn’t rest upon policy. Rather, it’s all about personality:
His support is not tethered to a single issue or sentiment: immigration, economic anxiety or an anti-establishment mood. Those factors may have created conditions for his candidacy to thrive, but his personality, celebrity and boldness, not merely his populism and policy stances, have let him take advantage of them.
Tellingly, when asked to explain support for Mr. Trump in their own words, voters of varying backgrounds used much the same language, calling him “ballsy” and saying they admired that he “tells it like it is” and relished how he “isn’t politically correct.”
Trumpism, the data and interviews suggest, is an attitude, not an ideology.
Or look at it this way: Trump has taken his TV show on the road, and it’s doing quite well with the folks who tend to gravitate toward “ballsy,” tell it like it is types (a term with a great history…Donald, meet Spiro. There is nothing new in politics).
Does this mean Trump is simply trolling the nation right now? Could be. Ted Cruz is positioning himself so that, when Trump tires of the road, Trump’s supporters will gravitate to him.
That makes tactical sense, and Cruz is the one candidate in the bloated Republican field who not only has the ability, but also the means to take up where Trump leaves off.
That should leave the rest of the field cold. If Trump lasts — and crucially for him and other campaigns, manages to get on state ballots — he could win. Think about it. A crowded field, with some campaigns that once would have folded but are now kept alive by superPACS (looking at the Ricks — Perry and Santorum..and Christie, too). The vote gets widely split. A winner may not need much — 25 percent, 30 percent. Maybe less. Trump’s support may be broad and shallow, but if his backers actually show up to vote for him in a primary…say hello to your nominee.
If he taps Cruz…there’s you’re new frontrunner.
The Nefarious Establishment, which is supposed to loathe all things not controlled by its potions and paychecks, should be looking for someone to quietly approach the lagging campaigns and tell them to get out before the voting starts.
Narrow the field now. Raise the total needed to win a primary.
Not happening. Not yet, at least.
But even if it does, there is no guarantee that a different candidate will rise to compete with Trump or a Trump-backed Cruz. Because what a sizable slice of the electorate wants is someone who speaks without a filter. Bigger than life. Classy. Ballsy. Tough. As un-P.C. as possible.
You know, what they really want is President Camacho.
