Yes, yes… everyone is going to whine and complain about the call.
…but y’all know it’s true.
Why can we say that with confidence? Because Patrick Ruffini over at Echelon Insights asked, and here’s what you told him:
Another important way at looking at the race at this early stage is by asking people who they think is likely to win the nomination. Here too, Donald Trump comes out on top, at 29%, but it’s a closer race between him and Jeb Bush, at 20%. Coming in third is Marco Rubio; 9% of respondents believe he will win the GOP nomination.
That’s almost half of the electorate, folks.
Now perhaps these numbers are insanely fluid — I don’t know. And perhaps social conservatives and particularly evangelical conservatives have yet to settle on a candidate. Huckabee seems to be the best anyone can do, though Carson is rising and Kasich seems to speak their language (that is, when he’s not discussing same-sex marriages).
…but here’s the interesting chart:
We see a clear ideological divide in assessments of Bush’s chances, and to some extent Trump’s. Traditional Conservatives are more than twice as likely to name Trump as the likely winner over any other candidate. Centrists are slightly more likely to believe Trump rather than Bush will win the nomination (29% to 25%), and Libertarians are most likely to name Bush the likely winner, at 30%, to 23% for Trump.
Now I’m not going to go so far as to say there’s some sort of latent libertarian support for Jeb Bush out there. Perhaps many libertarians suspect that The Establishment (TM) have already selected their man, and the whole thing was picked out by Illuminati and Freemasons and Bildebergers some months ago (Bearing Drift was there, we can’t talk about it… but let’s just say we were well fed for a time and not-terribly-beaten when discovered).
One can easily see the trend though. Trump has the support of the older-yet-dying-off populist movement. Bush has the support of the younger, more Millennial — and yes, more libertarian — future.
What is interesting to this fella is whose demographics best mirror Trump’s demographics. Quick look? Rubio… not Cruz… stands to gain from an implosion of Trump.
Others with similar splits? Look at Ted Cruz’s lack of appeal to centrists — Kasich, Fiorina, Carson to a point, and Perry all seem to mimic the same results. Bush seems to carry with Paul, potentially Christie.
…and the undecideds? Are waiting for a centrist champion.
I’ve lifted a great deal from Ruffini’s observations, which are well worth reading in full without my interpretations thereof. Get this one in your RSS feed, folks… solid numbers and terrific insight from Echelon today.
