I like Donald Trump.
I’m not reticent in admitting that I’ve always liked Donald Trump. I like his casinos. I like his golf courses. I like his TV shows. I even like his hair – his hair makes mine look good in comparison. He’s fun to watch, he’s great with a zinger and he’s the most quotable man in the country right now.
He’s also leading almost every recent poll for the Republican nomination for President, and he’s only half a percentage point behind Jeb Bush in RealClearPolitics running average of polling as of today. This has started the usual tongues wagging in DC Republican circles, and what used to be a smile and a shake of the head about his candidacy has begun turning into grimaces – it reminds me of those heady few weeks in 2012 when Newt Gingrich was flirting with the lead over Mitt Romney.
The good thing is that we Republicans have nothing to worry about. Donald Trump isn’t going to be our nominee, and he’s not going to be President. But while he’s in the race, he’s doing us all a great service – one that really nobody else could do. He’s going to help us all weed out some of the deadwood candidates at the bottom of the polls, and that’s something we desperately need.
We have too many candidates running for President right now, more than at any time period for Republicans in my lifetime (and probably in history). Let’s look at the numbers:
2016 – 15 announced, with 2 more announcements scheduled. 17 likely total.
2012 – 10
2008 – 8
2004 – 1
2000 – 13
1996 – 10
1992 – 2
1988 – 8
1984 – 1
1980 – 10
And I’m being generous with some of those numbers, as some of the candidates in those years never made it to or past Iowa. We’ve already seen the logistical issues that this many candidates, all of whom are plausible in one way or another, can cause. Debate scheduling is difficult, with new rules about polling and the like. A sharply divided Republican party has more choices now, with multiple choices that should appeal to each wing of the party, all vying for the same votes.
And then there’s Donald Trump.
Trump doesn’t care about any of the traditional rules, norms and mores of presidential politics. He says whatever comes to his mind and he doesn’t prevaricate – at least, no more than anybody else running for President. He doesn’t waste time trying to appear Presidential, because that term has become meaningless in the internet age. He says what he feels like, has no shame in taking credit for things like ‘raise[ing] the issue of illegal immigration and start[ing] a national conversation about [it]” – the Republican equivalent of Al Gore inventing the internet – and will pick fights with just about anybody, from Jeb Bush to the Huffington Post.
Everything he’s been doing is the exact opposite of almost all of the learned advice parceled out by the overpriced consultants who are feasting on this field of Republican candidates like vultures on the remains of an elephant carcass.
The only thing he’s doing right is grabbing headlines. And that’s what he’s best at, and always has been. That’s where he will be a benefit to the Republican Party. Presidential campaigns are like plants – they need sunlight, carbon dioxide and water to grow. Water is money, and unlike California, there’s no drought of money for any of the candidates right now. Republicans are even collectively outraising the Clinton machine. Even the lowest of the B-list candidates are raising money. That’s not where the problem lies for the second-tier candidates.
The sunlight and CO2 of any Presidential campaign is media coverage. Headlines. Reporters following you around to give you the gravitas of a real candidate. Bookings on Meet the Press and Fox News Sunday. C-Span coverage of your major events. Without sun and air, these nascent campaigns are never going to make it past the seedling stage. They’ll be starved to death, and wither before they ever break out.
And that’s what you’re seeing right now.
The Huffington Post announced today they are covering the Donald Trump campaign on their entertainment page, not their political page. That gave the Donald a great hook to go after them, and gave him yet another headline. But while HuffPo isn’t covering Donald Trump on their political page, they also aren’t covering most of the other Republican candidates either. Ben Carson, for example, hasn’t had a story since mid-June, and the front page of their political section right now only has stories on Cruz, Walker, Bush, Christie and Kasich. Rand Paul, Rick Perry and other first tier candidates aren’t even mentioned.
The same is true most everywhere else in the mainstream media. You’ll be hard pressed to find any stories about candidates other than Trump, Bush and a handful of the other frontrunners. Even in the internet age, there just isn’t enough political oxygen in America for 16 Republican candidates and Donald Trump. Heck, right now, there’s not enough just for Donald Trump.
By not giving candidates like Cruz, Carson and a few of the others the media coverage they need to get a campaign going, Trump is going to push some of the weaker candidates out of the race. I expect we’ll start seeing folks dropping way before Iowa and New Hampshire this year. And if the Donald is still in by December, probably half the field is gone before Iowa. That would be doing us a favor, with little long term risk. Nobody is going to hold Republicans accountable for what Trump says. Trump is Trump. He’s a brand unto himself, not a Republican icon. His outrageous statements won’t have an impact on the party or our eventual nominee, which won’t be him.
When the sugar high of the Donald passes – probably not long after the first televised debate, which will break records for viewership, I’m sure – the American people will laugh about how cool it was for Donald Trump to lead in the polls for a while, what a crazy thing that was, and they’ll choose another candidate who has actually had to govern at some point in their career and can handle the job.
Call me naïve, and many have, but I still have faith in the wisdom of the Republican electorate in choosing our presidential nominees. We don’t always win the White House, but we have never failed to put forth a nominee who could serve successfully and govern effectively as President. We’ll do that again in 2016.
Like I said, I like Donald Trump. I’d love to have a bourbon with him. But I’d never vote for him. Neither would most Republicans. And that’s why we really have nothing to worry about.
Enjoy the fun while it lasts. Things will get boring again soon.
