Paul Goldman and I have returned to the Washington Post after a brief hiatus with a new and expanded column. We’re going to be writing about Virginia’s role in the 2016 presidential contest. Our thesis: no Republican will win the White House without winning here. That’s a big change for Virginia, which has officially, and perhaps permanently, become a swing state.
This elevated status means that Virginia’ politics are also more important than in the past. As such, our first installment looks at the Republican spat over a conventions and primaries. The outcome will have a direct effect on 2016. Here’s a sample:
The last Republican to win the White House — George W. Bush — clinched a tough primary fight against rival Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by amassing 52.8 percent of the 664,000 voters in Virginia’s 2000 presidential primary. This has always been a political activist’s dream — the nominee owing his or her nomination to your state. It generates big political points and can result in career-making jobs and appointments if the party wins the White House.
But unlike most states, Virginia allows its state parties to choose the method of nomination. Recently, Virginia Republicans have made a mockery of the party’s presidential-nomination process. Normally, the state party and its local committees help presidential aspirants get on the ballot. Pro-Clinton Democrats are helping her rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), get on the ballot in New Hampshire. A real party wants to maintain the image of encouraging a free and open nomination contest.
Not so in Virginia. In 2012, only two of the many Republican presidential candidates managed to qualify for the primary because of the state’s restrictive ballot-access law. The traditional help went only to establishment favorite Mitt Romney. Barely 265,000 Republicans bothered to participate in this farce, a drop of 400,000 from the Bush win in 2000.
The 2012 fiasco made Virginia a cable-news punchline. To prevent a repeat and increase voter interest, one of the authors in 2013 helped convince then-Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) and Democratic legislators to make it easier for every credible candidate to get on the 2016 presidential primary ballot.
But instead of using the new law to increase voter participation, state GOP leaders NOW seem eager to choose an insular convention system for 2016.
Politics is a game of addition, not subtraction. In the coming presidential contest — with Virginia’s central role in that affair — Republicans cannot afford to pursue the subtraction path. If they do…it’s advantage Hillary.
