Here you go folks: go bold or go home — predictions for tomorrow’s primary contests!
A few narratives are developing in the press. One of three scenarios will occur:
1. Howell Loses, Tea Party Marches To Epic Win. Should Susan Stimpson shock the world on Tuesday, it will be a stinging blow to establishment conservatives, and give new winds to libertarian populists across the board. Even if Hanger is kept below 50%, that should be win enough. Haley bests Stolle-Dunnavant and Janis, and incumbents across the board are either brought close or brought down. The 2016 RPV Convention becomes a coronation, and 2017 will see a wave of retirements and modestly-funded challengers with playbooks designed to win.
2. Mixed Bag Shows Chaos For Virginia Republicans. If Haley or Stimpson win, both sides will claim victory, which will only sharpen the sticks for the upcoming 2016 RPV Convention (which given the scuttlebutt, appears as if it is going to be a bloody, drawn out, and protracted fight).
3. Conservatives Resurgent; Tea Party in Tatters. People forget that Virginia is rather unique among the 50 states when it comes to who runs the show. Should Howell emerge victorious, State Central Committee will be first on his mind for change in 2016. Should Janis beat Haley, and should Hanger and DeSteph and Cosgrove emerge with margins comfortable enough to enforce discipline — watch out. If Mark Berg loses as well… this narrative becomes the norm.
Anyhow — pleasant thoughts for a Monday afternoon, right?
