Warren Fiske over at Politifact notes that the Dunnavant campaign finally took down the false ad on former Delegate Bill Janis late Friday.
Bearing Drift broke the story yesterday, and after a good 36 hours of pressure from those who raised concerns about the ethical propriety of both the research and the attack ad, the campaign finally responded:
Cole, in an interview, said the ad would be off the air at some point on Friday. The commercial ran repeatedly on late news casts Friday night.
As far as the flier containing the same charge against Janis, Cole said, “They’ve already been sent out, we can’t unsend them.”
Of course, part of doing penance is to admit wrongdoing and ask forgiveness, while attempting to restore what was stolen — in this case, Janis’ reputation:
Cole said campaign researchers found Janis’ 2003 floor vote online with no qualification attached to it and were unaware that he filed a correction. “Had our researchers seen the gray sheet and brought it to us, which is standard practice when such information is available, we would have decided not to run this particular ad,” he said.
. . .
“I’m glad that they’re taking this TV ad down because it’s false and a lie,” Janis said. “But I’m disappointed Dr. Dunnavant fails to take responsibility for this ad and blames it on her researchers. At best, her campaign was reckless and irresponsible.”
Short version: too little, too late.
Meanwhile, here’s what’s going on at Camp Haley:
There’s more on this as we get into the final hours of the campaign. Haley pulled down a not-terribly unsurprising endorsement from talk show host Laura Ingraham today (which doesn’t convert a soul), but the tone of the interview was — equally not surprising — turning up the comparisons to Rep. Dave Brat, a comparison that Haley had not exactly shied away from, but one that bears some merit in mentioning.
There’s no question that the back and forth between Janis and Dunnavant is dangerous ground for political campaigners. In a multi-candidate race, two candidates slugging it out means that the others who don’t jump into the fray tend to benefit. Dunnavant’s immigration smear against Janis plays right into the hands of Haley’s narrative, especially as the candidate pivots to a more Brat-style insurgency structured around immigration and immigrants regardless as to whether or not they are legally present (more on that separately and later — it’s an interesting turn at the national level).
So here’s what folks ought to be talking about going into the final 96 hours of the campaign. Three numbers:
Fundraising // 2nd Quarter (SEN-12):
Donations under $100:
Haley – 130 donations, $6705
Janis – 94 donations, $6168
Dunnavant – 56 donations, $3647
Whitlock – 50 donations, $2835
This is a number that gets bandied about, and perhaps too cavalierly for some. But these small dollar donations matter, because they are a clear sign of grassroots support — maybe not all from inside the district, but again, a barometer.
Of course, amateurs talk tactics; professionals talk logistics. So $100 and up, who won the logistics war in SEN-12?
Fundraising // 2nd Quarter (SEN-12):
Donations over $100:
(excluding Stosch and Stolle donations to Dunnavant)
Haley – 96 donations, ~ $61,000
Janis – 79 donations, ~ $61,000
Dunnavant – 64 donations, ~$54,500 (She had $117,000 more from Stosch and Stolle)
Whitlock – 16 donations, <$5,000
Back to the above point regarding “qui bono?” with regards to the Dunnavant-Janis fisticuffs. Whitlock is universally well regarded, but can he present himself as an alternative in the same way that Haley can? Perhaps not… the gas simply isn’t in the tank.
…but once again, not only did Haley and Janis run neck-and-neck on those numbers, Haley did so with more donors. Again, all four candidates may not have done it with donations within the district, but it serves as a barometer nonetheless.
Which leaves us with the third and perhaps most important number: Cash On Hand.
SEN-12 COH as of 01 June 2015:
Haley: $315
Dunnavant: $61,629
Janis: $89,010
Whitlock: $40,666
Make matters a bit more complicated: (1) Janis received a quick cash infusion of $26,000 — with $14,000 of that coming from State Senator Tom Garrett, (2) Dunnavant has effortlessly blown most of her warchest on a failed and false ad, and (3) Haley has already primed the pump for the last week of the race — meaning their COH numbers reflect a campaign primed to execute on the “grassroots strategy” Zach Werrell employed for Dave Brat in 2014.
SEN-12 hinges on two factors:
FIRST, is this race boiling down to a voter enthusiasm contest? Will invoking the name of Dave Brat really pull enough folks in? Or is Vince Haley enough on his own to have the enthusiasm question sealed up? By calling in the heavier hitters, I’m not certain that the enthusiasm question is working in Haley’s favor… otherwise, why shift the messaging? Still, it’s a question…
SECOND, does Bill Janis’ background and experience align with his work ethic and presence in his old HOD seat to produce a solid rock of reliable support? The answer to that question has to be a determined yes — Janis was always going to be the candidate to beat in SEN-12, his record as a conservative is battle tested with the dents to prove it.
So does Dunnavant have anything left that folks on the ground aren’t seeing? Or can Haley overcome Janis’ rock-solid base of support?
I don’t see the former. The latter might very well be the story of the night, given that SEN-12 has become the marquee race in Virginia this year after the Howell-Stimpson race sputtered out.
If you’re Bill Janis, you’re feeling pretty good right now based on hard work — not intuition. The question really hinges on how real Vince Haley’s support is, and whether Dunnavant is in the race at all or whether she is going to do everything possible to kneecap Janis — by hook or crook?
Keep your eyes on this one, folks.
