Ed Gillespie has already taken one gamble, taking on Mark Warner over the Senator’s role in the Puckett mess. Now he’s taken another:
Republican Senate candidate Ed Gillespie has dropped $400,000 into his campaign account, he told supporters Thursday in an email titled “All in.”
“Here in Virginia, we have the unique opportunity, as we have throughout our nation’s history, to lead in fighting for the American Dream,” the email states. “(My wife) Cathy and I think that’s worth a lot and that’s why we’ve gone all in for this campaign.”
Putting one’s own money into a campaign at this stage is usually seen as a sign of weakness, and for good reason: it means fundraising is weak and outside groups have decided to spend their dollars elsewhere.
So the only source of ready cash becomes the candidate. Gillespie’s campaign points out that Mark Warner dumped millions of his own money into his 1996 Senate race against John Warner. Fair enough. And so what? Warner lost that contest, though he exceeded expectations and set himself up for a successful gubernatorial run in 2001.
That’s history. The current reality is that despite some national press, Mr. Gillespie has yet to convince the national check writers he’s worth the investment. And very likely won’t.
How does Gillespie survive? He could take a look at how David Brat’s congressional campaign managed to upend Eric Cantor with virtually no money — locally or from national sources — and little name ID. Granted, the personality dynamics of that congressional primary aren’t present in the statewide Senate race. And, unlike Eric Cantor, Mark Warner is not generally loathed, even by his supporters. Brat, however, had a ground and pound effort that was truly remarkable. And it beat Eric Cantor’s bank account with ease (surprising everyone, including Mr. Brat).
A once in a generation upset? Yes. But that contest reinforced the maxim that 80 percent of success is just showing up. And having an opponent who assumes too much makes up for the rest.
It helps Gillespie that he has an issue: Warner’s character. The Puckett mess has shown Mark Warner to be just another pol with a talent for making sausage. Forget the bipartisan, radical centrist. That is now, and always has been, marketing. It’s also worked.
But in the wake of the McDonnell convictions, anyone who appears to have bits of gristle stuck under their fingernails is suspect in the eyes of federal prosecutors and the press. It’s the reason why Mark Warner has been dodging the press of late or refusing to go beyond his talking points regarding the Puckett mess. He knows it hurts.
Has Gillespie turned the screws enough to transform that hurt into real pain? Without any new polling data, there’s no way to know. Until we do, the race is still Warner’s to lose.
All of which makes Gillespie’s cash infusion more curious. Tradition says it’s a bad bet. Maybe he has money to burn. Perhaps this is just a fundraising hook (and a very expensive one at that). Maybe he knows something the rest of us don’t about the numbers in the race.
Or maybe he’s putting the money into an old-fashioned ground and pound effort.
