The other half of Quinnipiac’s Virginia poll is out and it finds Sen. Mark Warner ahead in a hypothetical match-up with Republican contender Ed Gillespie:
Sen. Warner tops former White House aide Ed Gillespie, a possible Republican challenger, 46 – 31 percent, with 6 percent for Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds.
Virginia voters say 49 – 36 percent that Warner deserves reelection. They approve 55 – 33 percent of the job he is doing and have a 49 – 30 percent favorable opinion of him. For the other candidates, 64 percent don’t know enough about Gillespie to form an opinion and 80 percent don’t know enough about Sarvis.
A re-elect number under 50 traditionally spells trouble for any incumbent — even one of Mark Warner’s supposed invincibility. But he’s within the margin of error on that one, so it’s entirely fair to give him a pass for now.
More interesting, aside from Quinnipiac assuming Gillespie will be the nominee (and Gillespie still has much to do on that front), is the inclusion of Robert Sarvis in the polling mix. Six percent is not exactly a commanding figure and it could very well be Sarvis’ ceiling in this contest. Something to keep an eye on — particularly if that margin becomes more significant to the outcome in November. In that case, I fully expect the still bloody knives used against Sarvis late in last year’s campaign to be put to use once again.
Update
Jim Hoeft has some additional information and excellent perspective on the Q-Poll numbers, including the spin from the Gillespie campaign. Not surprisingly, Gillespie’s team sees a number of silver linings:
There’s little doubt that beginning from a 46 percent baseline is, or ought to be, troubling for Mr. Warner.
Funny thing is, Paul Goldman and I wrote about Warner’s potential weakness back in late December, in our first Washington Post column. Then, Warner was ahead of a generic Republican 50-45:
… a savvy pro like Gillespie knows such numbers are derivative. He would check to find out the cause.
Our hunch: He learned that voters are surprised when told of Warner’s support for Obamacare. That vote is a huge liability right now among the Virginians whom Gillespie needs to attract to be more than a sacrificial lamb. And should he run, it would mean a major national GOP guru is betting he can use Obamacare to bring someone of Warner’s stature down.
Impossible? Mark Warner knows better. In 1996, Warner, then a rookie candidate, challenged incumbent Republican Sen. John Warner. D.C. political gurus considered John Warner, a Washington fixture, to be an easy winner. But the younger Warner’s “MarkNotJohn” campaign pounded the incumbent as having lost touch with working Virginians. Those TV ads proved powerful. The supposedly unbeatable Republican only narrowly survived. Roughly 20 years earlier, this same anti-incumbent mantra caused “unbeatable” Democratic Sen. Bill Spong to lose a re-election bid.
There is a lot of work ahead for Gillespie and, despite the cheering of his supporters, his campaign is not ready for prime time. He has a real fight on his hands for the nomination in Shak Hill. The GOP he seeks to lead into November is busy cutting itself to bits in a series of internal power struggles. Those are never good signs for a campaign looking to do what the smart money says can’t be done.
But most of all, numbers like those in the Quinnipiac Poll tell Warner he’s in for a fight no matter what. He knows it, which is why Warner is furiously grsaping for alternatives to the biggest issue in the election: Obamacare.
Yes, Nate Silver has given Warner a 95 percent chance of winning a second term. But Warner knows his Virginia political history too well. There is no such thing as a sure win, especially when the issues surrounding a race are largely dictated by events out of any candidate’s control.
