Nate Silver gives the GOP a fair shot at Senate takeover

Nate Silver’s latest foray into new media has kicked up quite a storm. It seems the numbers pundit has given the GOP a fair shot at taking back the Senate this year:

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It’s not a lock and plenty can change in the eternity between now and election day. But for local consumption, there is one race among all the rest worth noting…

The other eight races on this list are likely to hold for Democrats even in worst-case scenarios. Republicans have sometimes talked up their opportunity in Virginia, where the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, Ed Gillespie, is running. Ordinarily, we’d snark about party hacks overrating the chances of one of their brethren winning office, but Virginia just elected Terry McAuliffe as its governor. However, Democratic incumbent Mark Warner maintains high approval ratings, and he’d likely hold the seat even against a strong opponent.

Silver has Warner’s re-election chances at 95 percent.

One quibble with Silver’s analysis of the Virginia race…Ed Gillespie has to win GOP the nomination before he can face the Warner buzzsaw. And early rumblings I’ve been hearing indicate that his campaign’s ground game is meandering somewhere between tepid and inert. One could get the impression that Mr. Gillespie believes he is entitled to the nomination. Shak Hill, the other major contender for the GOP nomination, is working the ground very aggressively and has the pre-filed delegate leads to show for it — including from some of Virginia’s major population centers.

That race, too, has a long way to go and anything can happen. But under no circumstances will it be a coronation.