The Bearing Drift/Conquest Communications poll of Virginia’s statewide races has something of a surprise in the lieutenant governor’s race: a statistical tie. But looming over both candidates is the 40 percent of likely voters surveyed who remain undecided.
As noted in Saturday’s write-up of the race for attorney general, it is not unexpected to find that voters have not made up their minds on the down ballot candidates. That means, absent a wave election, they have to work harder at getting their messages out. The Jackson campaign has long said this is their strength, a point that gained a degree of validation from a most unlikely source: UVA’s Larry Sabato:
“No one thinks this is going to be anything but a low-turnout election,” Sabato said. “If Jackson pulls a massive upset and wins, we’ll all be pointing to his invisible army of skin-in-the-game backers.”
Perhaps. But looking at the congressional districts, we see a few counterintuitives. Jackson leads in the 1st, 4th, 6th, 7th and 9th. Northam leads in the 2nd, 3rd, 8th and 11th. The 5th and 10th are tied. Jackson can take no comfort from his areas of strength. The 9th CD, for example, has him ahead of Northam 24-21 — a statistical tie with a whopping 54 percent undecided. Similarly, the 6th district shows Jackson ahead 29-23, but with almost 49 percent undecided. This race is truly up for grabs, despite the cast-iron narrative that Jackson isn’t just unelectable, but could drag down the rest of the GOP ticket.
There’s one other item to note in this particular contest. The open secret is that Ralph Northam is not a particularly energetic candidate — which is a nice way to say he’s lazy. He can’t afford to be in a contest that puts a premium on retail politicking.
Up Monday: the gubernatorial race. And yes, we polled for all three candidates.
