Roanoke College has polled registered voters on the statewide races and the results show Ken Cuccinelli up by 6 points over Democrat Terry McAuliffe. Further down the ticket, Democrat Ralph Northam holds a 2 point edge over E.W. Jackson (well within the poll’s 4.3 percent margin of error) and Mark Obenshain leads Democrat Mark Herring by 4 points.
The kicker, though, is this:
Almost two-thirds (62%) of registered voters said they have thought only a little or not at all about the gubernatorial campaign thus far, while 36 percent said they have given the election some or a lot of thought.
Yes, most folks are tuned out. I suspect many of them will remain that way until 2016.
To Roanoke College’s credit they also included Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Robert Sarvis in the mix. He manages a 5 percentage point showing — just outside the margin of error, but far below what the intrepid defenders of the Republican-Democrat duopoly consider worthy of inclusion in any candidate debates.
Still, keep an eye on Sarvis — and if your name is Terry McAuliffe, keep both eyes on him. Why? Because of this. When Sarvis supporters are pushed to make a choice between Cuccinelli and McAuliffe, 31 percent go to Cuccinelli, while 36 percent go to McAuliffe. That is an interesting split. Traditionally, Libertarians are seen as spoilers for the GOP. Here, it would appear that the person with the most to gain, at least among those voicing a preference, is McAuliffe.
The GOPers who sent me notes about my post yesterday on Sarvis may want to think about those numbers for a while…
And we all may want to ponder the Northam/Jackson numbers. That Jackson appears to be keeping very close contact with Northam is remarkable, considering how early and hard the opposition (even from Republicans) came out swinging against him. All the more reason, then, for Jackson to get his house in order. Immediately.
Once that’s done, perhaps the Jackson campaign can frame a copy of this Jeff Schapiro column about Democrats plotting their takeover of the Senate.
As for Mark Obenshain…it’s steady as she goes.
