While the Center for Politics team sees the overall Senate environment trending slightly Republican for 2014, Virginia is not among those states where the GOP has a shot to unseat freshman senator Mark Warner. Sabato & Co. look at it this way:
Republicans were always going to have an uphill climb against wealthy Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, but their chances got even slimmer when they opted to select their nominee via convention next year. Having a convention rather than a primary increases the possibility of the GOP picking an unelectable far-right candidate, similar to current 2013 lieutenant governor nominee E.W. Jackson (R). One name to watch is Del. Bob Marshall (R), a culture warrior who would probably make the kind of highly conservative social issues statements that have been causing establishment Republicans headaches lately. The convention also makes it even unlikelier that Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), who will be leaving office because of term limits after the 2013 gubernatorial election, will run against Warner. McDonnell is also in serious trouble because of an FBI investigation into large, unreported gifts that he and his wife have taken from “friends” — the kind of friends attracted to powerful people, residing in the Governor’s Mansion, who can do them favors. Wholly apart from this growing scandal, the GOP activist crowd dislikes him because of a major tax-raising transportation bill passed earlier this year. SAFE DEMOCRATIC
Regardless of the GOP’s selection method, the damage McDonnell has taken in the last few weeks has made him unelectable. But the point about a convention choosing a sacrificial lamb in 2014 is well taken. Marshall sought the 2008 Senate nomination, in a convention, against eventual nominee Jim Gilmore. Marshall came close to winning, and the accusations that shenanigans kept the nomination out of his grasp are still fresh in some minds.
But would he make another run next year? I don’t see it, but cannot entirely discount it. His 2012 Senate bid was late and lackluster, but Marshall has a dedicated following. The convention field could be large — bigger even than this year’s gaggle of lieutenant governor candidates. Does that necessarily mean a repeat of this year’s convention? Of course not. But the opportunity for a lesser known, financed and prepared candidate to win the nomination will be there, particularly if none of the state’s bigger Republican names gets into the race.
So far, none of those bigger names (Randy Forbes, for example) seems inclined to run. More’s the pity, because Warner has not faced a serious electoral challenge since his gubernatorial run in 2001. And seeing as how Warner has no idea why he should be re-elected, the opportunity is there for a challenger to have some fun with the incumbent dilettante.
