You guys know you’ve been itching to pontificate… so let’s go for it:
DOMA: Expect a very lengthy 5-4 SCOTUS decision either way, but the court will uphold the Defense of Marriage Act. SCOTUS will also uphold the right of the U.S. House of Representatives’ standing in the case, setting a pretty serious precedent.
Prop 8: Expect the court to (1) affirm standing, (2) reject the basis of the appellate court and (3) send it back.
Reaction: Marriage supporters will — and quite rightly — claim a massive victory and go on offense. Opponents have already realized that short of (1) a complete overturn cum inversion of DOMA combined with (2) a rejection of Proposition 8 on the merits, they have not only lost this round but perhaps lost the argument in toto. The Roberts court if anything has proven itself to be a strongly federalist one… so even if DOMA does not stand, the default position will only be a strengthening of the federalist model. This one may be a 6-3 ruling… maybe stronger. Watch as the so-called liberal justices (Ginsberg excepting) prove they are independent of the left/right divide.
…as for protests and the venom at MSNBC? Well… we’ll have to see how that goes.
Should it go the other way and the left wins on both DOMA and Prop 8 in a “Roe v. Wade” sort of ruling on marriage, do not expect the larger players — namely the Mormon Church and the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops — to be silent.
Predictions and thoughts?
