The President is back in Northern Virginia today, headlining a rally at George Mason University. Considering that his campaign is dialing back its efforts in the Commonwealth, why is the GMU stop still on the agenda?
Data I’ve seen indicates that it could be due to Democrats under-performing in absentee and early voting in some key Northern Virginia counties. Compared to their number in 2008, Democrats are down 11 percent in Alexandria, almost 14 percent in Arlington and nearly 19 percent in Fairfax.
That’s bad news for the President, worse news for Tim Kaine and should trouble Gerry Connolly and Jim Moran, too.
The enthusiasm gap is real and it reaches even into the areas that swooned for Mr. Obama in 2008. No wonder he’s heading back to Fairfax, the most laggardly and vote-rich of them all, to try to stoke the passion one more again.
Update from J.R.:
Rasmussen is also now showing that Romney has a 50 percent to 47 percent lead among likely Virginia Voters in a poll taken Thursday night – two nights after the debate. Last week’s poll had Romney leading 49-47 percent. According to Rasmussen:
Ninety-four percent (94%) of likely voters in the Old Dominion say they are certain to vote in this election. Among these voters, Romney leads 52% to 47%.
Among the 88% of voters in the state who say they’ve already decided whom they will vote for, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 49%.
Yesterday, Gallup had Romney over the fifty percent threshold nationally with a 7-point advantage on the president 52-45. Although many pundits dismiss it as an outlier, and it may be, it still shows movement among likely voters towards Romney.
