The National Journal’s Major Garrett broached the possibility that the Obama campaign was all but conceding Virginia. The Obama campaign has denied this, but my sources are telling me it’s true: the President will be putting the bulk resources to work elsewhere. One data point? The Obama campaign is preparing to spend an additional $6 million on ads buys in swing states. Here’s where the money is going:
FL: $1,320,754
NV: $253,050
WI: $770,194
OH: $1,654,398
NH: $722,945
VA: $199,535
NC: $1,320,085
More money going to Nevada than Virginia? Very interesting.
So how about the President’s schedule? We know he’s going to be at George Mason University on Friday (the same day Mitt Romney is in Abingdon, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is in Richmond). There’s some interesting conjecture about that, too:
On Thursday, the President goes back to New Hampshire – the four Electoral Votes of the Granite State could still be very important. A new poll out yesterday showed Mr. Obama with a one point edge over Romney, as the race has closed suddenly in the last two weeks.
Both candidates will be in Florida next week for Monday night’s final debate; when the candidates leave town, they will have 14 days of campaigning left and ten states to choose from.
On Friday, the President will go to Camp David for several days of debate prep; Romney meanwhile will go to Florida early as he stops in Daytona Beach on Friday and then stays in the state to get ready for the final faceoff with Mr. Obama.
Once the debate ends on Monday night, both candidates will have 14 days to deal with 10 swing states – 11 if you want to expand it to include Pennsylvania or maybe Minnesota, where the Obama campaign is buying radio ad time and sending in the wife of Vice President Biden.
Minnesota? Holy cow.
If the Obama campaign is going to put resources there, then you know they are in deep trouble.
But let’s step back to Virginia. The Obama campaign gives every appearance that it’s cutting back. And as it does, the one person who could end of suffering the most is Tim Kaine.
It’s a curious thing about the Kaine campaign — it doesn’t seem to be unified with the Obama ticket at all. Check out Obama for America’s Virginia page. Aside from your chance to get tickets to the Obama event at George Mason, can you spot any references to Tim Kaine? Or any other Democrat running for Congress in the state?
It would appear that Tim Kaine is on his own in Virginia. And if the Obama campaign pulls its resources out of the state, Kaine will be left to fend for himself (well, with a hand from the “secret money” folks running ads on his behalf).
Conversely, the GOP has been running a unified effort. It will come as a surprise to Jeff Schapiro, but Republican canvassing efforts in the state always talk to voters about Mitt Romney, George Allen and the local congressional candidate. It’s a unified effort.
It’s the kind of effort Kaine and the House Democratic candidates don’t have. And with the DCCC pulling out of Virginia’s 2nd district race — the only one where they were putting any resources in this cycle — Kaine could be left high, dry and lonely.
Or maybe it’s more like what Warren Buffett once said: “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked.”
Maybe someone should get Tim a towel.
