UVA’s Larry Sabato has made some changes to his electoral map, and they favor Mitt Romney. A look where the moves are occurring:
The respected Marquette Law School Poll, which had Obama up 11 in Wisconsin before the debate, now shows the president ahead only 49%-48% in Badgerland. This squares with three other surveys conducted after the first debate (but before the second), all showing Obama with small leads inside the margin of error. So Wisconsin is now a toss-up.
My sources tell me that the Romney campaign is moving additional support into Wisconsin as we speak.
But here’s another change, one I pointed out earlier this week:
We also cannot ignore the polls showing tightening margins in both Pennsylvania’s presidential and Senate contest, so we’re moving both to leans Democratic, down from likely. Romney probably only wins Pennsylvania in a decisive national victory — we’ll be stunned if it accounts for his 270th electoral vote — and the challenger’s campaign is wise to downplay his chances both in the Keystone State and Michigan.
Pennsylvania has gone democratic since 1988. George W. Bush came close in 2004, and Mr. Obama won it in a walk in 2008. This year, though, the race is tight and the Real Clear average has the President up by five points.
The Romney campaign is putting no resources into the state, while the Obama campaign is calling for reinforcements. It’s one to watch.
Sabato still has Colorado as a toss-up. And that’s probably true. However, Colorado was also one of the states Obama adviser David Plouffe left off his list of states where the campaign will concentrate its efforts.
And what about Virginia? It, too, was not on Plouffe’s list, but the Professor keeps it as a toss-up. The President will be making a campaign stop at George Mason University on Friday — while Mitt Romney is visiting Abingdon. So maybe Virginia — or at least Northern Virginia — hasn’t been written off entirely.
Elsewhere in the commonwealth, though, the Democratic machine is in retreat. Specifically, in Virginia’s 2nd congressional district contest:
The DCCC also cut final week advertising for six districts and one additional TV market where Democratic fortunes have waned. Rep. Larry Kissell won’t get any help in North Carolina’s 8th District in Charlotte, while GOP-held FL-16 (Vern Buchanan), North Dakota (open seat), Ohio’s 7th (Bob Gibbs) and 10th (Michael Turner) districts, and Virginia’s 2nd District (Scott Rigell) won’t see DCCC advertising in the final week, either.
If Democrats aren’t getting traction in this swing House district against freshman Rep. Scott Rigell, then the party’s problems may run deep, indeed.
