For all the talk about Virginia’s central role in the presidential race, and how Ohio will decide the fate of presidents and nations, it could be that other large nearby state — Pennsylvania — is the sleeper contest of the cycle.
A Quinnipiac poll of the state shows the race there is tightening up:
Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed a 12-point gap with President Barack Obama and now trails the president 50 – 46 percent among Pennsylvania likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 54 – 42 percent Obama lead in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In today’s survey, men back Romney 54 – 43 percent, compared to a 49 – 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 – 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 – 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 – 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 – 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 – 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney.
Only 7 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say they might change their mind in the next 21 days.
“Gov. Mitt Romney is coming on strong in the Keystone State, especially among white Catholics,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The margin of error in the poll is 2.5 percent. And our friend, the trend, is favoring Mitt Romney.
In my interview with Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey last week, he said neither the Obama nor the Romney campaigns were doing a lot of paid media in the state. He noted, thought, that “Pennsylvania is a battle ground state right now, as we speak. It’s a toss-up right now.”
Remember that President Obama carried the state by 10 points over John McCain in 2008.
If the Quinnipiac poll is correct, Toomey and the rest of the state may begin seeing a rush of money from both campaigns seeking to claim those valuable 20 electoral votes.
Update
Yep. The Obama campaign is reading the same PA numbers and reacting accordingly:
Pennsylvania could use a hand right now. The other side is hitting our airwaves hard with an onslaught of negative ads. But while our opponents are primarily focused on that, we’re on the ground, talking to people about the issues they care about and how President Obama and other Democrats can help them. With just 21 days left, we’re counting on you to pitch in. Come join us in Pennsylvania where we’ll head out into local neighborhoods to knock on doors and have one-on-one conversations with voters about what’s at stake in this election. Want to pitch in here in Pennsylvania on Saturday?
It’s the latest of three emails the post’s author, Katrina Trinko, has received from the Obama campaign about Pennsylvania since last Thursday.
