Scott Rasmussen has poll numbers on the Virginia Senate race and they show…a statistical tie:
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds Kaine with 47% support to Allen’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
The margin of error is 4.5 percent, so one candidate really could be widening his lead over the other and we wouldn’t see it. But then we have this:
Kaine and Allen, both former governors, were tied at 45% apiece late last month. They have been within two points of each other in surveys since last September.
No breakout for either man in a year. Just slight changes of mind, which could have as much to do with the make-up of the voters polled as anything else. Yet there is also this:
Allen who hopes to reclaim the Senate seat he lost in 2006 to Democrat Jim Webb has the support of 83% of Virginia Republicans, while 94% of the state’s Democratic voters back Kaine. Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, Allen leads 47% to 36%. Webb chose not to seek reelection.
Republicans, at least as measured in Scott’s survey, aren’t nearly as solid behind Allen as Democrats are behind Kaine (spin your own narrative as to why that may be). But he makes up for that among the all-critical, all-decisive independent bloc. Even among those who aren’t sure what their political ideology might be (categorized as “not sure”), Allen trumps Kaine 60-40.
Kaine’s biggest hurdle is among independents and it ought to trouble him, doubly so because independents have the largest number of most undecided voters — 10 percent.
Another interesting nugget? Allen leads Kaine among married couples, 50-45, and 55-40 among those with children at home. For the years Mr. Kaine has spent talking about his concern for Virginia families, if you actually are part of a Virginia family, you’re more likely to be an Allen supporter.
And this last bit is almost funny: broken down by income level, Allen leads Kaine among all groups except those making under $20,000 per year, and those making more than $75,000 per year.
To adopt the language of the Occupiers for a moment, Tim Kaine would seem to be the choice of the one percenters, and the folks who want what the one percenters have got. The wide middle? That’s Allen country.
It really is rough when a narrative breaks down…
