Larry Sabato has staked out a fine claim to being a national prognosticator when it comes to forecasts, predictions and meanderings for federal politics. In a recent Politico article about Bob McDonnell, however, Sabato showed just how far removed from reality his opinions are in Virginia politics:
“McDonnell is back down to a minimal majority in job approval. Transvaginal ultrasounds and other controversial social issues have hurt him. … Maybe Romney puts [McDonnell] into the Cabinet,” mused UVA political scientist Larry Sabato, who spoke out prominently in the debate over the university presidency. “Otherwise, I don’t see much for him. He can’t beat Warner in ’14, the other Senate seat won’t be available until 2018, there’s already a line to run for governor in ’17 and I can’t see McDonnell being a very strong candidate for president in ’16 or ’20.”
1) Bob McDonnell has been at +50& job approval nearly his entire term, including 63% as recently as this year, and stands at 53% according to Quinnipac. In a state that’s roughly 35R/30D/35I in demographics and is a solid swing state in presidential years, McDonnell has defied trends and remains one of the most popular governors in the nation.
2) The ultrasound bill hurt in the short-term because of the Democrats alleged ‘war on women’ nonsense. Long-term given that he rejected the bill, it’s a nothing issue. There are no other ‘controversial social issues’ in McDonnell’s three years (except the Confederate Heritage misstep) that have hurt him.
3) Bob McDonnell is the only Republican in Virginia who can beat Mark Warner. Comparing their two track records as governor, McDonnell’s is head and shoulders above. Given the number of horrific votes Warner has done in the Senate, including the stimulus, health care, bailouts, etc and having voted to increase spending by trillions of dollars, if anyone is going to beat Mark Warner, it’s Bob McDonnell. Mark Warner has this perceived aura of invincibility because of his approval rating. The only reason it exists is because he coasted to the governor’s mansion and coasted into the US Senate. Put him into a legitimate race, and Warner is as vulnerable as any Democrat in Virginia. He raised taxes, did literally nothing for transportation while increasing education costs and coasting off Bush’s economic boom. Compare that record to McDonnell’s? That’s a 50/50 race.
4) This is the most surprising one, McDonnell not being a strong candidate for President. A wildly successful and popular governor of a southern swing state, who’s young, a veteran, staunchly conservative having won by 17 points the year after Virginia went blue for the first time in thirty four years is not a ‘ very strong candidate for President’.
Larry Sabato, you are a moron.
