Wondering why so many campaign ads are running in June? Everything from YouTube to radio to cable television is already choc-full of political ads for Obama, against Obama, for Romney and against Romney.
Too soon?
Not soon at all.
In fact, most Presidential elections end up in November exactly how they looked in summertime.
In 1980, Reagan was leading Carter in polls all summer long, peaking at a 45-29 thrashing in August. Carter came back in the fall, but fell apart soon enough and Reagan won by double digits just like in his summer polls.
1984 polls between Reagan and Mondale were never close in the summer and were never close in the fall. That race, in the minds of voters, was over in June.
1988 is the race where those who believe in late fall turnarounds hang their hats, but even that doesn’t hold water. Bush trailed Dukakis most of the summer, but the Bush comeback happened in August, not the fall. Bush had a red hot August, overtook Dukakis and it was never close again.
1992 was the Perot polling year, where his dropping out of the contest in July fueled a Clinton summer surge that lasted throughout the campaign. Bush never got close after July.
1996 was even worse as Clinton’s lead going into June matched how the race ended in November. Dole got within 10 points after the summer convention, and lost by 9.
2000 saw George W Bush gain a big convention bounce, but that evaporated once the Democrats had their convention. The post-convention polls were virtually unchanged until Election Day. Again, the summertime winner was the winner in November.
2004 was close, historically speaking, as well, but Bush was beating Kerry in mid-June and led by about the same margin right through to November.
2008 was Obama’s race all year long, according to polls. The seven point lead he won with was about the same lead Obama held throughout the summer. McCain got close around the GOP convention, but within a week, Obama was back to his summertime lead, and that’s where it ended.
2012? Romney was winning in May, and latest polls show Obama regaining a lead in June, with negative ads flying everywhere. July and August will decide this election.
Want to know why Presidential campaigns are advertising in the summer?
Because whoever is winning in the summer wins in November.
